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Der Goldpreis erreichte am Montag jedoch ein neues Rekordhoch im Tagesverlauf von 2.130 $ Später in der Sitzung kehrten sich die Gewinne um, da die Händler den Zeitpunkt neu bewerteten eine mögliche Zinssenkung der Federal Reserve im Jahr 2024. Der Anstieg der Der Wert des Edelmetalls in den letzten Sitzungen ist größtenteils darauf zurückzuführen Faktoren wie sinkende Inflation, schwächelnde Arbeitsmarktdaten und a Die gemäßigtere Haltung der Federal Reserve führte zu Spekulationen darüber Die Zentralbank könnte bereits im Jahr 2024 mit der Senkung der Kreditkosten beginnen ursprünglich erwartet.
Die kurzfristige Nachfrage nach Gold wurde durch einen Zwischenfall mit einer Goldmünze weiter angeheizt Angriff auf ein amerikanisches Kriegsschiff und Handelsschiffe im Roten Meer, zunehmende Besorgnis über eine mögliche Eskalation der Spannungen im Nahen Osten. In einer Erklärung vom Freitag behielt der Vorsitzende der US-Notenbank Jerome Powell dies bei Sie gehen davon aus, dass die US-Zinsen noch über einen längeren Zeitraum hoch bleiben würden. Allerdings gibt es subtile Veränderungen in seiner Sprache, insbesondere eine Anerkennung von Fortschritte bei der Eindämmung der Inflation und das Potenzial für eine „sanfte Landung“ für die US-Wirtschaft verstärkte die Erwartungen, dass die Fed davon Abstand nehmen könnte Wir werden die Zinsen im Dezember anheben und möglicherweise bereits im März mit Zinssenkungen beginnen 2024.
Händler schätzen derzeit die Federal Reserve mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von fast 97 % ein wird die Zinssätze in Zukunft in einer Spanne von 5,25 % bis 5,50 % halten Treffen im Dezember. Mittlerweile besteht eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von mehr als 50 %, dass Die Zentralbank wird die Zinsen bereits im März nächsten Jahres um 25 Basispunkte senken Jahr, ein deutlicher Anstieg gegenüber der Wahrscheinlichkeit von etwa 21 % vor einer Woche.
Quelle: TradingView
Die Aussichten sinkender Kreditkosten sind günstig für Gold, wenn man bedenkt, dass höhere Zinssätze die Opportunitätskosten erhöhen Investitionen in unverzinsliche Vermögenswerte wie Gold. Dieses Konzept hatte hat sich im vergangenen Jahr negativ auf den Goldpreis ausgewirkt. Angesichts der jüngsten Die ausbrechenden Goldpreise sind bereit, die Rallye auf 2.250 bis 2.300 US-Dollar auszuweiten möglicherweise für längere Zeit über der 2.000-Dollar-Marke bleiben. Geopolitische Unsicherheit, ein möglicherweise schwächerer US-Dollar und die Die Aussicht auf Zinssenkungen ist einer der Schlüsselfaktoren dafür bullischer Ausblick.
Fazit:
Der Goldpreis ist in den letzten zwei Monaten deutlich gestiegen. Der Israel-Hamas-Konflikt steigert die Nachfrage nach dem sicheren Hafen. Gold entwickelt sich in wirtschaftlichen und geopolitischen Zeiten typischerweise gut Unsicherheit aufgrund seines Status als verlässlicher Wertaufbewahrungsmittel. Das Erwartete Der Rückgang sowohl des US-Dollars als auch der Zinssätze im Laufe des Jahres 2024 dient als bedeutende positive Treiber für Gold.
Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at
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