Wall Street Sees 30% Upside for Palantir After Q1 Earnings

Palantir stock has underperformed in 2026. As investors have turned their attention to AI infrastructure names, the software stock has declined by more than 20%¹. The company continues to grow at a prolific rate, however, as businesses and government organizations embrace its AI solutions. And Wall Street analysts remain bullish on the name, with the average price target sitting more than 30% above the current share price.

85% Revenue Growth in Q1

Palantir’s Q1 earnings², posted on April 4, were very strong. For the quarter, revenue was up 85% year-over-year to $1.63 billion, (its highest ever year-over-year growth rate) while adjusted income from operations was up 152% to $984 million. Earnings per share amounted to $0.33, ahead of the consensus forecast of $0.28³. Breaking the top-line figure down, US commercial revenue was $595 million, up 133%. Meanwhile, US government revenue was $687 million, up 84%. For the quarter, the company generated a “rule of 40” score of 145 (up from 127 in the previous quarter).

Source: Palantir, May 4, 2026

Increased Guidance

Zooming in on guidance, this was increased. For 2026, the company now expects revenue of $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion (compared to $4.48 billion in 2025) along with adjusted income from operations of between $4.44 billion and $4.45 billion (versus $2.25 for 2025). US commercial revenue guidance was raised to in excess of $3.224 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 120%. Looking further out to 2027, CEO Alex Karp said that he expects US commercial revenue to double in 2027.

Earnings Call Insights

On the earnings call⁴, management spent time talking about how Palantir’s AI solutions add real value for customers and avoid generating “AI slop”. They emphasized that their Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is the only solution capable of establishing a "true AI no-slop zone," which they framed as a critical prerequisite for moving AI from experimental phases to high-stakes production environments. Notably, Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor argued that while the industry at large is grappling with the "risks and perils of being beholden to models alone," Palantir’s ontology-driven approach adds value by converting raw AI potential into compounding real-world value without risking "enterprise disaster" caused by hallucinations or unreliable outputs. By positioning AIP as a "battle-tested platform" designed for environments where there is no room for slop, management underscored that their value proposition lies in the precision and reliability of their software rather than the mere implementation of generic large language models.

Stock Price Forecasts for Palantir

Since Palantir’s Q1 earnings, several Wall Street firms including Citigroup and Rosenblatt have raised their price targets for the stock. Citi⁵ has gone to $225 from $210 while Rosenblatt⁶ has gone to $225 from $200. At present, the average price target is $182, which is around 30% above the current share price. Given this bullish analyst sentiment, Palantir could be a stock to watch in 2026.

Footnotes:

¹Google Finance, May 6, 2026

²Palantir Reports Q1 2026, as of May 4, 2026

³Palantir, Letter to Shareholders, as of May 4, 2026

⁴Investing.com, Earnings call transcript: Palantir Q1 2026 exceeds forecasts, stock climbs, as of May 4, 2026

⁵Market Screener, Palantir Technologies Inc., as of May 5, 2026

⁶Investing.com, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), as of May 5, 2026