On Wednesday November 19, after the closing bell, AI chip powerhouse Nvidia will post its earnings for the third quarter of its fiscal 2026 year. This earnings report - which will be closely scrutinized by investors the world over - could have major ramifications for not only the tech sector but also the market as a whole.
Here, we are going to reveal what analysts will be looking for in terms of revenue and earnings figures and forward-looking guidance. We’ll also discuss some potential ramifications of a good/bad report from Nvidia.
Wall Street’s Estimates for Q3
In recent quarters, Nvidia has generated prolific top and bottom-line growth. And for Q3, analysts expect another set of blockbuster results.
Going into the earnings, Wall Street is looking for:
Revenue of $54.8 billion, up 56% year on year (YoY)1
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.25, up 60% YoY1
Data center revenue of $48.6 billion, up 58% YoY2
Q4 revenue guidance of $61.3 billion1
Note that in its Q2 2026 earnings report3, Nvidia provided the following guidance for Q3:
Revenue of $54 billion (±2%)
Data center sales of more than $48 billion
Gross margin of 73.3% on a GAAP basis and 73.5% on a non-GAAP basis
It’s worth pointing out that sequential growth rates (quarter over quarter) will be important. Slowing sequential growth could suggest that the massive backlog of orders may be easing or that supply issues are persisting. For Q2, Nvidia posted revenue of $46.7 billion, up 6% quarter on quarter (QoQ). Adjusted EPS for Q2 was $1.04, up 8% QoQ.
Three Important Areas of Focus
Looking beyond the headline numbers, there are likely to be several issues that investors will be focused on in the earnings report and earnings call. These include:
The Blackwell GPU ramp up: Investors will be looking for updates on the production ramp up of Nvidia’s Blackwell GB200 GPUs. Management commentary on how quickly the company can ramp up production and meet the high demand for Blackwell chips will be important - any sign of manufacturing or supply chain constraints could impact investor sentiment.
China sales: In its Q2 report, Nvidia’s guidance for Q3 assumed no H20 shipments to China. Investors will be looking for more information here as China sales could potentially boost the company’s growth in the future.
Automotive and robotics growth: This is an area of the business with a lot of growth potential so investors will be keen to see how it is performing. Last quarter, automotive revenue was $586 million, up 69% year on year.
The Potential Ramifications of Nvidia’s Earnings
If Nvidia’s Q3 earnings are better-than-expected and show strong demand for the company’s GPUs, the artificial intelligence (AI) theme - which has been a little shaky recently - may get a boost. In this scenario, other AI stocks such as Broadcom, AMD, ASML, and Taiwan Semiconductor could see gains as could the market as a whole.
On the other hand, if Nvidia’s earnings are disappointing, AI stocks may see some profit taking. A poor report from the chip company could also lead to general market weakness, given its dominant position in major indexes such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.
The Setup for Nvidia Stock Going into Earnings
Going into the earnings, Nvidia stock is up about 40% year to date4. Its relative strength index5 (RSI) is around 50 meaning that it is neither overbought nor oversold.
In terms of its valuation, it’s currently trading at around 42 times this fiscal year’s expected earnings and 28 times next year’s projected earnings6. The average price target6 is currently $230 - more than 20% above the current share price.
Footnotes:
1Koyfin/S&P Capital IQ, as of November 13, 2025
2IG, as of November 11, 2025
3NVIDIA Newsroom, NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2026, as of August 27, 2025
4Google Finance, as of November 13, 2025
5Guru Focus, NVDA (NVIDIA) 14-Day RSI : 46.41, as of November 14, 2025
6LSEG, as of November 13, 2025
