ASML Stock Forecasts Rise After 2026 Guidance Lifted

ASML stock has been a standout performer in 2026. Amid bullish sentiment towards AI chip stocks, its share price has risen around 35%¹. Looking ahead, Wall Street analysts see the potential for further upside, despite the fact that the stock commands a relatively high valuation at present. Because recent earnings have shown that demand for the company’s EUV lithography systems – which are critical for the production of advanced AI chips – is very high.

2026 Guidance Raised

On April 15, ASML posted its earnings for Q1 2026² and they were strong. For the quarter, total net sales were €8,767 million versus €7,742 million a year earlier³ while net income was €2,757 million versus €2,355 million in Q1 2025.

During the quarter, the company sold 67 new lithography machines and 12 used machines compared to figures of 73 and four in the prior-year period. Installed based management sales amounted to €2,488 million versus €2,134 million a year earlier.

In terms of guidance, the company said that it now expects total net sales for 2026 to be between €36 billion and €40 billion, with a gross margin of between 51% and 53%. That compares to previous guidance of total net sales of between €34 billion and €39 billion, with a gross margin of between 51% and 53%.

Note that for 2025, the company generated €32.7 billion in revenue and a gross margin of 52.8%. So, the most recent guidance implies top-line growth of 10% to 22%.

Demand is Outpacing Supply

Commenting on the results, President and CEO Christophe Fouquet said that ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments are driving demand for chips and that demand is outpacing supply. He added that in response to the high level of demand, the company’s customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond, supported by long-term agreements with their customers.

On the earnings call⁴, CFO Roger Dassen addressed potential concerns about ASML's ability to keep up with demand, stating that the company should be able to ship 60 of its high-performance EUV machines in 2026. That would represent an increase of 25% year-over-year.

Dassen added that the company has been working closely with key supplier Zeiss to increase production of its chip manufacturing tools. Next year, ASML is targeting production of 80 machines.

Price Target Increases for ASML

Since ASML’s Q1 earnings, several Wall Street firms have increased⁵ their price targets for the stock including UBS, Citi, Deutsche Bank, and RBC Capital. All of these firms now have targets of between €1,600 and €1,700 (approx. USD $1,870 to $1,990).

At present, the average price target is €1,463 (approx. USD $1,710), which is nearly 20% above the current share price. Given this bullish analyst sentiment, ASML could be a tech stock to keep a close eye on in the months ahead as the AI buildout continues.

Disclaimer: The author has positions in ASML

Footnotes:

¹Google Finance, as of April 23, 2026

²ASML reports €8.8 billion total net sales and €2.8 billion net income in Q1 2026, as of April 15, 2026

³ASML reports €7.7 billion total net sales and €2.4 billion net income in Q1 2025, as of April 16, 2025

⁴Newsfile Refinitiv, ASML lifts 2026 revenue outlook to 36 billion-40 billion euros, as of April 15, 2026

⁵Investing.com, ASML Holding NV (ASML), as of April 16, 2026