PayPal stock has significantly lagged the market in 2025. Year to date, it has fallen 14%1 while the S&P 500 index has advanced roughly 17%. There are several factors that could potentially give the FinTech stock a boost, however. These include a recent beat and raise, the initiation of dividend payments, and a major partnership with ChatGPT owner OpenAI.
Q3 Beat and Raise
PayPal posted its earnings for the third quarter2 of 2025 on October 28 and they were generally solid. For the quarter, revenue amounted to $8.4 billion, up 7% year on year and ahead of the consensus estimate of $8.2 billion3. Meanwhile, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $1.34, up 12%, and above analysts’ forecast of $1.21. Total payment volume (TPV) for the period was $458.1 billion, up 8% year on year.
Importantly, the company raised its guidance. It now expects full-year non-GAAP EPS of $5.35 to $5.39 versus previous guidance of $5.15 to $5.30.2
Dividends Initiated
One thing that stood out in the Q3 earnings report was the initiation of a quarterly cash dividend. The first dividend payment ($0.14 per share) will be paid on December 10, 2025, to those who own the stock at the close of trading on November 19, 2025.
While PayPal’s dividend yield is likely to be small, the initiation of a dividend payment shouldn’t be ignored. Because it could significantly widen the universe of potential investors here. Often, institutional investors are unable to invest in stocks that don’t pay dividends. So, the quarterly dividend could potentially lead to more interest in the stock.
An OpenAI Partnership
While the Q3 beat and raise and the dividend initiation were well received by investors, the biggest news on October 28 was the announcement of a partnership4 with AI powerhouse OpenAI. This will potentially enable ChatGPT users to check out instantly using PayPal, which will be embedded into the AI app. It will also seek to allow PayPal to connect its global merchant network to OpenAI, potentially allowing users to sell within ChatGPT. The partnership is set to launch next year, and it could be a major growth driver for the FinTech firm.
New Price Targets for PayPal
Since the news of the dividend initiation and the OpenAI deal, several Wall Street firms have increased their price targets for PayPal stock. One such firm is Oppenheimer, which has increased its target price to $1305 from $125.
That price target is approximately 78% above the current share price. This indicates that Oppenheimer’s analysts see substantial upside in the medium term.
Footnotes:
1Yahoo Finance, as of October 29, 2025
2PayPal Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results, as of October 28, 2025
3Yahoo Finance, Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq notch fresh records as Nvidia soars ahead of Fed rate decision, as of October 28, 2025
4PayPal Investor Relations, OpenAI and PayPal Team Up to Power Instant Checkout and Agentic Commerce in ChatGPT, as of October 28, 2025
5Investing.com, PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL), as of October 28, 2025
