Article by Leverage Shares by Themes Research
Anthropic IPO Share Price vs First Trade: Past Mega IPOs
October 30, 2026 | Anthropic Stock News
The Anthropic IPO share price hasn't been set. When it is, history says the first-day market price could land a long way from it. Across 9,345 US IPOs from 1980 to 2025, the average first-day return was 19.0%, according to University of Florida professor Jay Ritter. Among the largest technology listings, Uber lost 7.6% on day one, while Snowflake and Airbnb gained more than 110%. Past IPOs don't tell you what ANT could do, but they show how wide the range has been.
What's the difference between the Anthropic IPO share price and the first trade?
The IPO share price is what allocated investors pay the company and the selling stockholders. It's set at pricing, before trading starts. The first trade is the price at which Nasdaq's opening cross matches the most buy and sell orders on the first day. The difference between the two shows how demand in the open market compares with the price set in the order book. Our guide to the IPO date versus the first trading day explains how that opening works.
How have the largest tech IPOs traded on their first day?
Seven large listings show the range. Two more than doubled on day one, one closed below its IPO price, and the rest landed somewhere in between.
Company | Year | IPO price | First-day close | Change |
SpaceX (SPCX) | 2026 | $135 | $160.95 | +19.2% |
Arm | 2023 | $51 | $63.59 | +24.7% |
Rivian | 2021 | $78 | $100.73 | +29.1% |
Airbnb | 2020 | $68 | $144.71 | +112.8% |
Snowflake | 2020 | $120 | $253.93 | +111.6% |
Uber | 2019 | $45 | $41.57 | -7.6% |
2012 | $38 | $38.23 | +0.6% |
Source: company pricing releases, Nasdaq, and press reports. Changes are Leverage Shares calculations from the reported prices.
There's no typical first day. Facebook barely moved, Uber fell, and the two 2020 listings more than doubled.
Saudi Aramco, then the largest IPO ever, is the outlier. It opened at 35.2 riyals against a 32-riyal offer price, a 10% rise that hit the Saudi exchange's daily limit.
Did the first-day gains last?
Not always. SpaceX is the most recent case, and the one closest in size to Anthropic. SPCX closed its first day at $160.95, reached a record close of $201.80 four days later, and then fell back. By July 15, 2026, it closed at $135.27, just 27 cents above its IPO price and 33% below that record close. Our article on SpaceX's first weeks of trading follows that path in full.
What does the long-run average tell investors?
That IPOs are, on average, priced below where they close on day one. Ritter's 19.0% figure for 1980 to 2025 is an average across thousands of deals of all sizes. The cases in the table show how wide the spread around that average is, from a loss to more than a doubling.
Does this history say anything about ANT?
No. Each listing in the table priced in a different market, at a different valuation, and with a different share supply. None of these results is a guide to where ANT could open or close. They show the range a mega IPO has produced. They don't show where ANT lands in it.
Most investors buy in the market rather than at the IPO price. For them, the more relevant comparison is the first trade against later prices. SpaceX's path from $150.00 at the open to $135.27 five weeks later shows how wide that difference can be in both directions. Our guide to how to short Anthropic stock explains the mechanics and risks of each method.
Key takeaways
- The IPO price is set by the company and its banks with a limited group of investors. The first trade is set by everyone else.
- Across seven large tech IPOs, the first-day change ranged from -7.6% (Uber) to +112.8% (Airbnb). The long-run US average is 19.0%.
- SpaceX's first-day gain didn't last. Five weeks after listing, it closed 27 cents above its IPO price.
Sources
- Jay Ritter, University of Florida, Initial Public Offerings: Updated Statistics, October 5, 2026
- TechCrunch, SpaceX officially prices shares at $135 in the largest IPO ever, June 11, 2026
- Reuters via Investing.com, SpaceX market debut, June 12, 2026
- TechCrunch, SpaceX falls to $135 IPO price, July 15, 2026
- IPOScoop, Arm Holdings prices IPO at $51, September 14, 2023
- IPOScoop, Rivian first day of trading, November 10, 2021
- Benzinga, How 2020's hottest IPOs have performed, December 2021 (Airbnb)
- Converge Digest, Snowflake soars in IPO, September 16, 2020
- Axios, Uber ends first day of trading lower, May 10, 2019
- AP via MPR News, Facebook's flat debut, May 19, 2012
- Al Jazeera, Saudi Aramco shares surge 10 percent on debut, December 11, 2019
- Nasdaq, IPO Cross fact sheet
