• AMD reported robust Q1 results beating expectations on both earnings and revenue
• AMD provided strong guidance for Q2, forecasting revenue of $7.4 billion
• AMD expects AI chip revenue to grow by double digits despite chip curbs

AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Beats Estimates, but Faces $1.5 Billion Revenue Hit from China Chip Curbs

Advanced Micro Devices delivered a robust first-quarter performance in fiscal 2025, exceeding Wall Street expectations on both earnings and revenue. While the company’s growth was powered by surging demand for AI and data centre chips, U.S. export restrictions to China pose a significant headwind for the remainder of the year.

Q1 Financial Highlights

• Earnings per share (EPS) adjusted: $0.96 vs. $0.94 expected
• Revenue: $7.44 billion vs. $7.13 billion expected
• Net income (adjusted): $1.57 billion vs. $1.55 billion expected

AMD reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.96, topping the consensus estimate of $0.94. Revenue for the quarter came in at $7.44 billion, a 36% year-over-year increase and ahead of analyst forecasts of $7.12 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The company’s net income jumped to $1.57 billion (or $0.96 per diluted share), compared to $1.01 billion (or $0.62 per diluted share) in the same period a year earlier. This sharp improvement underscores AMD’s continued efficiency in cost management and operational scaling despite global supply chain challenges and increased regulatory scrutiny. (1)

Segment Summary

• Data Centre Segment Soars 57% on AI Chip Demand

A key driver of AMD’s performance was its Data Centre segment, which recorded $3.7 billion in revenue, up 57% from a year earlier. This growth reflects expanding deployments of Epyc server CPUs and Instinct GPUs, both essential to powering large-scale AI training and inference. CEO Dr. Lisa Su confirmed that AMD’s AI chips are being actively used by top-tier AI developers including OpenAI and DeepSeek, reinforcing AMD’s growing credibility in the high-performance AI hardware market.

• Client Segment Growth Outpaces Expectations, Gaming Revenue Declines

AMD’s Client segment, which includes laptop and desktop processors, posted $2.3 billion in revenue, surpassing analyst estimates of $2 billion. This represented a 68% annual growth rate, driven by strong adoption of AMD’s Zen 5 chips, released in the summer of 2024.

However, the Gaming segment declined 30% year over year to $647 million, as revenue from console chips softened. AMD attributed this decline to weaker sales in the second half of console life cycles and the impact of tariff pressures. Console sales were further affected by rising prices from partners like Microsoft and Sony, who are adjusting pricing strategies in response to changing cost structures.

• Embedded Segment Sees Mild Decline Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty

The Embedded segment, which comprises revenue from the 2022 Xilinx acquisition, recorded $823 million, down 3% year over year. The segment’s slight contraction reflects broader demand moderation in industrial and telecom markets, where embedded chips are typically used. While still a strategic part of AMD’s diversified business, the segment faces temporary headwinds amid global economic softness.

U.S. Export Controls Trigger $1.5 Billion Revenue Risk

While AMD’s product momentum remains strong, the company warned of significant regulatory headwinds. Due to new U.S. export restrictions on AI chips bound for China, AMD expects a $1.5 billion reduction in revenue for fiscal 2025, nearly 5% of Wall Street’s projected full-year revenue of $31 billion.

The company reported an $800 million Q1 charge related to inventory reserves and purchase commitments and anticipates $700 million in lost sales in Q2 due to the new rules, which affect shipments of AMD’s Instinct MI308X AI processors.

While the company faces some headwinds from the macro and regulatory environments, including the recently announced export controls for Instinct MI308X shipments to China, they could be more than offset by the powerful tailwinds from AMD’s leadership product portfolio.

AMD Provides Positive Q2 2025 Guidance

AMD issued a strong Q2 revenue forecast of $7.4 billion, plus or minus $300 million, which is above the consensus estimate of $7.25 billion. Gross margin guidance stands at 43%, impacted by the aforementioned export-related charges.

Dr. Su expressed confidence that, despite export restrictions, the company expects AI-related revenue to grow at a “strong double-digit rate” in 2025, supported by high demand from enterprise and hyperscaler customers including Microsoft and Meta.

Source: TradingView

AI Trade Faces Near-Term Volatility

The chip sector has seen significant turbulence in recent months. Stocks like AMD and Nvidia have faced pressure amid speculation that AI growth is overhyped, while announcements like DeepSeek’s efficient AI model using less advanced chips have raised concerns about future hardware demand.

While laptops and desktops remain exempt from current tariffs, semiconductors are under review for potential duties under the U.S. Commerce Department’s Section 232 investigation. (2)

Following the earnings release on Tuesday, AMD shares are modestly higher reflecting investor uncertainty over how much of the AI opportunity AMD can capture in light of U.S.-China tensions and strong competition from Nvidia. The risks from slowing AI growth and inventory stockpiling ahead of regulatory changes also weigh on investor’s minds.

AMD’s share price has been trading within the boundaries of a down trend channel over the past year, declining from its all-time high of $227.30 in March 2024 to $76.48 in April 2025. While the stock appears poised to rebound to its down trend line crossing at $131.00 in the near-term, at this juncture in time, there are no signs the long-term down trend has reversed course yet. A break above this level of dynamic resistance is needed, before investors can gain confidence that a new up trend is emerging.

Conclusion:

AMD’s Q1 2025 earnings confirm its strength in next-generation data centre and AI hardware, positioning the company to capture significant share in one of the fastest-growing areas of tech. However, regulatory and geopolitical risks, particularly surrounding China exports, may limit near-term upside and inject volatility into the stock.

Investors with a long-term horizon may view the current regulatory turbulence as an entry opportunity, while short-term traders will likely remain sensitive to headline risk.

Note a piè di pagina:

1. AMD Investor Relations: https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1247/amd-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results
2. Federal Register: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/04/16/2025-06591/notice-of-request-for-public-comments-on-section-232-national-security-investigation-of-imports-of 1.
3. AMD Conference Call: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/cz75bzw7/