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SpaceX Delivers Strong Earnings but Capex Weighs

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

SpaceX Delivers a Strong First Earnings Report

SpaceX first quarterly earnings report since becoming a publicly traded company delivered solid results across the board. Revenue almost doubled from a year earlier as Starlink continued to expand rapidly, and artificial intelligence infrastructure emerged as an important new source of commercial revenue. Although the company remained loss making because of heavy investment, financial results exceeded market expectations and demonstrated that growth remains exceptionally strong across all major business segments.1

Perhaps the biggest takeaway was the transformation of the business model. Only a few years ago, launch services was the core business. Today, recurring connectivity revenue, artificial intelligence infrastructure and long term government contracts are becoming the primary drivers of future growth, creating a more diversified business with multiple revenue streams.

Revenue Growth Beats Expectations

SpaceX reported second quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, representing a 92% jump from the same period last year and almost 15% above analyst expectations of $6.81 billion. Every reporting segment cleared the bar that analysts had set, and adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Adjusted loss per share narrowed to $0.09 from $0.34 a year earlier, highlighting improving operating leverage despite continued investment across the business.1

The results confirmed that growth is no longer dependent on a single business line. Connectivity, artificial intelligence and launch services all contributed to higher revenue, giving management several long term growth engines. At the same time, investors remain focused on whether this rapid expansion can eventually translate into stronger profitability and cash generation.

Starlink Remains the Profit Engine

Starlink remained the largest business and the biggest contributor to quarterly revenue for the company. Connectivity, the segment built around the Starlink satellite network, generated $4.29 billion in revenue against an expected $3.83 billion, and it remains the only unit producing an operating profit. This represents a 66% increase from a year earlier as the subscriber base doubled to 12 million. However, the average revenue per subscriber held at $66, down sharply from $85 a year ago as international expansion brought in lower priced customers. Operating income climbed 79%, supported by growing demand from enterprise customers, governments, airlines and maritime operators.1

The importance of Starlink extends beyond subscriber growth. Recurring subscription revenue provides a stable source of cash flow capable of supporting investment in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and Starship. The company also secured more than $6 billion in multi year Starshield government contracts, further strengthening long term revenue visibility.1

AI Becomes the Fastest Growing Business

The AI business, which folds in xAI, the Grok chatbot, and cloud compute agreements, brought in $2.56 billion in revenue, up 247% from a year earlier and well past the $2.18 billion estimate. Growth was supported by new cloud computing agreements with Alphabet and Anthropic, while management disclosed $14.1 billion of contracted AI cloud services that have yet to be recognised as revenue.1

The operating loss for the segment narrowed to $1.26 billion, which is a meaningful improvement from the prior quarter as new cloud contracts began contributing to the top line.2

Management is positioning the company as a leading provider of AI infrastructure rather than competing solely through proprietary AI models. A newly announced partnership with NVIDIA to develop orbital AI computing platforms further highlights these ambitions and demonstrates that artificial intelligence is becoming an important pillar of future growth.1

Rocket Business Remains a Strategic Long Term Investment

While connectivity and artificial intelligence generated most of the financial momentum, launch services generated $962 million revenue and remains central to the company long term strategy. Revenue from commercial launches and government missions continued to grow, although significant investment in Starship development kept the division loss making.1

Management continues to view Starship as a transformational technology capable of reducing launch costs, supporting lunar and Mars missions and enabling entirely new commercial opportunities. Although these investments continue to weigh on near term earnings, they also represent one of the largest long term growth opportunities for the company.

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Source: SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings release, August 4, 2026.

Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

Record Capital Spending Rattles Investors

What unsettled the market was the spending behind it. Capital expenditure jumped more than sixfold compared with a year earlier to $18.37 billion for the quarter, as management accelerated spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centres and satellite deployment. Artificial intelligence investment alone reached $15.83 billion during the quarter.1

Following heavy AI spending disclosed recently by Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, the scale of the outlay drew immediate scrutiny from analysts on the earnings call.

These investments continue to pressure profitability, but management argues they are necessary to establish leadership across artificial intelligence, connectivity and reusable launch technology. The biggest question is when these investments will begin generating stronger earnings and free cash flow.

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

Source: SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings release, August 4, 2026.

SpaceX Shares Fall Despite the Earnings Beat

Despite delivering strong revenue beats on every segment, shares fell around 8% to $116 in afterhours trading following the results. Investors looked beyond the headline numbers and focused on continued net losses, record capital expenditure, the absence of detailed financial guidance, and a lockup period for company insiders due to expire within days of the report. The sharp market reaction suggests investor sentiment could remain cautious in the near term, with the stock potentially facing additional downside towards the $100 level.

The reaction highlights the growing investor discipline toward companies investing aggressively in artificial intelligence. Markets want evidence that heavy spending will produce attractive financial returns rather than simply supporting ambitious long term growth plans.

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

Source: TradingView. SpaceX daily price chart as of August 4, 2026.

Raised Guidance and the Lockup Cliff Ahead

Management outlined an ambitious vision for the coming year, targeting a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by the end of 2026 and $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. Plans also include expanding computing capacity to at least 20 gigawatts by the end of 2027 and launching space based data centres as early as next year.1

These targets illustrate how management views the company as a global technology infrastructure provider rather than a traditional aerospace business. Future growth will depend on the successful expansion of connectivity, artificial intelligence and advanced launch capabilities.

However, that optimism sits alongside a separate risk factor: roughly 911.5 million insider shares are due to unlock on August 6, the largest such release since the IPO, and traders are watching closely for what that supply might do to the stock.3

Conclusion:

The latest earnings reinforced the view that SpaceX is rapidly transforming into one of the most diversified technology companies in the world. Starlink has become the financial backbone of the business, artificial intelligence is emerging as a powerful new growth engine, and launch services continue to support long term technological leadership.

The key investment risk remains execution. Record capital expenditure and continued losses are likely to keep investors cautious until stronger cash generation begins to emerge. However, if management successfully converts current investments into sustainable earnings growth, the company could justify its premium valuation over the coming years.

Key Takeaways

  • Revenue surged 92% as Starlink and AI significantly exceeded market expectations.
  • Capex continues to pressure profitability despite strong operating momentum.
  • A large insider share unlock could add pressure on the stock beyond the earnings themselves.
Professional investors looking for magnified exposure to SpaceX may consider Leverage Shares +3x Long SpaceX or -3x Short SpaceX ETP.

Footnotes:

  1. SpaceX Investor Relations, Q2 2026 earnings, as of August 4, 2026.
  2. Investopedia, SpaceX Earnings Live, Aug. 4, 2026: What Elon Musk’s Company Reported and What You Need to Know, as of August 4, 2026.
  3. Tech Times, SpaceX Q2 Beat Raises Full-Year Guidance for First Time as $116B Lock-Up Looms, as of August 4, 2026.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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