As a company, Tesla has done wonders: it has successfully proven that Electrified Vehicles (EVs) can be successfully designed and consumer sentiment will be positive. Over the past ten years, while new vehicle sales in the U.S. have shown long-term decline, the sale of EVs – Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs), Hybrid Vehicles and Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCEVs) – have shown year-on-year increases. This has compelled nearly major carmaker in the world – from Germany and Japan to India and Brazil – to reorient focus towards this new frontier of vehicle technology.
However, while the company is doing rather well as a business, the stock’s performance flies in the face of all rational outlook regarding the auto industry.
Volumes and Ratios
Lets consider two other major U.S. carmakers as comparators: Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM). For the calendar year of 2021, Ford is estimated to have sold 1.905 million cars in the U.S., of which about 121,000 were EVs. General Motors sold 3.655 million cars in the same period, of which only a little under 25,000 cars are EVs. The company is betting quite heavily on vehicles based on its all-new Ultium platform such as the GMC Hummer EV Pickup/GMC Hummer EV SUV, the Cadillac Lyriq, and the Chevrolet Silverado EV/GMC Sierra EV as well as the BrightDrop commercial vehicles – all of which are expected to be introduced by the end of 2022/early 2023.
Tesla is estimated to have sold (as opposed to delivered) around 353,000 EVs (all of which are, of course, BEVs).
An additional comparator could be Toyota which is estimated to have sold 2.332 million cars in the U.S., of which a little under 584,000 were EVs but is less suitable in all comparison cases on account of its sizeable historical presence in a variety of markets. Toyota announced a lineup of 12 cars under the « Beyond Zero » (BZ) badge in December 2021, a number of which could be suitable for North American markets.
Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk has traditionally shown significant disdain for those shorting his company’s stock in recent years particularly in social media, where both he and his company have many fans. However, in reality, it can be seen that net short interest in his company has reduced to drawing up nearly par with US rivals Ford and General Motors in the present, despite stock prices climbing upwards.
