History Suggests the Anthropic IPO Will Play Out Like This  

If there’s one thing we know about the Anthropic IPO, it’s that it’s going to be a blockbuster public debut. With experts expecting a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2.0 trillion¹, excitement levels within the investment community are sky-high.

The thing is, many blockbuster tech IPOs in recent years have followed the same pattern, and it’s not pretty. Here’s how history suggests the Anthropic IPO will play out.

A Familiar Playbook

Look at the biggest US tech IPOs since 2020, and you’ll see a familiar storyline – the stocks have often shot up immediately upon listing before falling significantly as IPO hype fades. This pattern has played out on many occasions.

It happened with SpaceX. After its listing in June 2026, it shot up to $226 – well above its IPO price of $135 – before falling to $105 just a few months later².

It also happened with Cerebras Systems. After listing at $185 in May 2026, it surged to $385 shortly after the IPO before crashing to $100 in early November².

Rivian Automotive – which came to the market in a blockbuster IPO in November 2021 – is another stock that experienced the pattern. After listing at an IPO price of $78, it shot up to $179 before plunging to $19 within a year of the IPO².

Snowflake saw the pattern as well. It came to the market at a price of $120 in September 2020, spiked to $429, then fell back to $185 within 12 months of the IPO².

It also happened with Airbnb, which arrived on the Nasdaq via a blockbuster IPO in December 2020. It listed at $68, climbed to $220, and then fell back to $130 within a year of the IPO².

Now, it’s worth pointing out that not all of these stocks fell below their IPO prices within 12 months of hitting the public markets. While Snowflake and Airbnb fell heavily from their post-IPO highs, their stock prices stayed above their IPO prices over the first year of trading.

However, the stock prices of SpaceX, Cerebras, and Rivian all fell below their IPO prices within a year of their IPOs. As IPO hype faded, these stocks lost their shine.

The Implications for Anthropic

Of course, just because this pattern has played out with many blockbuster tech IPOs over the last six years, doesn’t mean that it will happen with Anthropic. Ultimately, Anthropic is a unique company and it has a compelling bull case.

For example, its revenue in the first half of 2026 was up 1,300% year-over-year to $16.3 billion³. That kind of top-line growth is literally unprecedented.

However, there is certainly a chance that history could repeat here. Because the company is coming to the market at a high valuation.

As IPO hype dies down, investors may focus more on factors such as margins, compute spending, competition, and customer concentration. This could lead to weakness for the stock price.

Footnotes:

¹Investing.com, Anthropic files for IPO, with revenue surging and potential $2 trillion valuation, as of October 26,2026

²LSEG, as of November 5, 2026

³Sec.gov, 1FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT, Anthropic, as of October 26, 2026