Official China retail numbers – that effectively separate out exports from domestic sales – aren’t available yet but “China+” deliveries are trending to be down 22% from 2024, wherein it delivered over 916,000 vehicles. In the month of June, China+ deliveries effectively reversed eight straight months of year-on-year declines² to register a small uptick. With near-parity in current delivery/production trends between East and the West in 2025 and slightly lesser underperformance in the West despite the opposition (both from politics and the market), this might be a bottom from which the company either rises or doesn’t fall quite as much as prognosticated.

However, it is a fact that – despite a trending decline in the U.S. EV market – Tesla’s relative lack of freshness in delivering fresh new models to pique consumer interest means that the company has much to lose while competing brands entering the market with relatively newer models have much to gain. These competing brands have strong performance in other markets in Europe as well as China (along with proximate regions).

Tesla’s decision to veer into autonomous driving is a potentially rich new vein to tap into, given the perhaps-inevitable continued loss of market share. Some estimates for its nearest U.S. rival – Waymo – assign a price tag of nearly $250,000³ for a car to be made fully autonomous. The initial Robotaxi launch in Austin (Texas) utilizes the existing Model Y with little by way of additional hardware. If this is the template that will be followed for full-scale rollout, there’s potentially anywhere between a 300% to 400% price advantage over the existing competition. For potential Robotaxi fleet operators, this is a massive incentive.

On the other hand, the aforementioned “spectacular end” to Mr. Musk’s “buddy” relationship with the Trump administration over President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” has raised a worrying prospect to some: a threat to end an estimated $38 billion (till date) in subsidies to Musk’s companies⁴. Mr. Musk replied⁵, “I am literally saying CUT IT ALL. Now.” (presumably meaning all subsidies being given out by the government)

While the Bill – which narrowly passed through both the House and Senate on the 3^rd of July – axes EV tax credits, it also currently has a provision⁶ that lets car buyers write off up to $10,000 a year in interest paid on qualifying auto loans taken out between 2025 and 2028 for the purchase of cars assembled in the US. Tesla is a decidedly American carmaker with facilities and only a small portion of buyers can be assumed to be buying Teslas in cash. This means that Tesla buyers stand to benefit in savings even if EV tax credits are erased.

After the passing of the Bill, Musk announced the formation of a “third party” with a stated intention to secure independence for the U.S. from its two-party system that effectively acts as one⁷. He plans to have this party to secure about 2-3 Senate seats and perhaps 8-10 House seats in order to make his concerns heard and secure better negotiating power for those disaffected by the two-party system. The stock went on to tumble around 7% on the 7^th followed by a slight recovery on the 8^th and a subsequent mild bullish trend.

We believe that for some investors, Tesla as a stock – and the valuation of thereof – is more centred around and the belief that his presence is central to Tesla’s success far more so than from the deep bench of innovators within the company. For investors not prone to these concerns – possibly the silent majority of Tesla’s investors – the shrinking market share is a prime matter of concern.

Be it Musk or Tesla, there is plenty to pooh-pooh for some – perhaps even justifiably sometimes. But, nonetheless, Tesla’s earnings call on the 22^nd of July would likely be one to watch for. If there are updates about Robotaxi deployments and/or a fresh new model, we believe that these could be additional bullish signals in the stock’s trajectory.

While some readers might see the facts presented as net positives, there are also numerous negative interpretations. However, it bears remembering that the automotive industry has never been a sprint; it’s a marathon. And Tesla – like its boss – remains a very interesting participant.