fbpx

U.S. Debt In 2024: A Major Crisis Is Brewing

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

In recent times, U.S. debt issuances had become a flashpoint for brinkmanship between various factions of the political spectrum with the legislature. Currently, limits on the maximum allowable debt – which has seen a near-constant increase over the years – have been suspended until January 1, 2025. It can be assumed that the optics associated with the tussle and inevitable carve-outs that arose prior to each «debt ceiling» increase being approved was deemed inconducive, with protracted conflicts arising on procedure over each legislative action taking its place instead.

Overall, it can be seen that America’s addiction to debt has definitive «epochs» relative to its history.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Leverage Shares analysis

After a massive spike in debt during the course of the Civil War, there was at least some attempt at prudence in the years leading up to the 20th Century. Since the dawn of the 20th Century, nearly every epoch has been met by at least a triple-digit percentage increase in debt. The Cold War period was indisputably the greatest epoch of increase: social benefits were enacted into law, military spending shot up to produce an ever-complexifying array of armaments to face off against the Soviet Union, and «urban improvement» measures attracted ever-increasing sums in intragovernmental transfers.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War did little to halt the nation’s habituation to living beyond its means. As of March 14 of this year, total debt outstanding stands at $34.49 trillion. The activist think tank The Heritage Foundation uses the U.S. government’s own projections to show that there is no off-ramp for this habituation: within 30 years, the average debt imputed on a citizen born in 2023 is expected to rise at least 189%.

Source: The Heritage Foundation

While social benefits account for the majority of the key drivers behind government spending, the interest payable on debt issuances are steadily catching up and accounting for nearly as much as Social Security.

Source: The Heritage Foundation

Over the course of this century, the U.S. government has never had a budget surplus (barring for one single year). If current issuance patterns continue, it is estimated that this deficit will continue to widen: before the end of this current decade, interest payments are slated to overtake all other drivers of spending.

Source: The Heritage Foundation

A recurring talking point among lawmakers has been government waste incurred due to fraud or other reasons. As per the U.S. government’s own numbers, this is certainly true: over the course of the past two decades, a little under $2.5 trillion in payments in total were either improperly done or made to unknown recipients.

Source: U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Leverage Shares analysis

This doesn’t mean that recovery is impossible: over the course of the past decade, the government’s recovery efforts has borne some fruit, with the quarter of a trillion in improper payments made in 2023 reported to have a recovery rate of 75%.

It bears noting, though, that «improper payments» constitute only a fraction of government’s debt issuances. In the Year Till Date (YTD) alone, the government has raised over $484 billion in debt issuances. Over the course of 51 days of debt activity so far, this translates to an average of $9.5 billion per day. 14 of the 51 days of activity saw debts being paid off and nearly each of these days was immediately preceded by a greater amount raised via issuances.

Now, given that each of these debt issuances translates to domestic spending, it stands to reason that this results in dollars being created in the system. Going by latest trends, around $1 trillion in currency is being «created» every 100 days1. Thus, indicators should portray the value of the present-day dollar being in precipitous decline relative to historical values. The indicators don’t necessarily do so.

The Problem with Indicators

It has long been argued that, over the course of time, money spent on purchasing goods and services isn’t quite the same as money received as compensation for said goods and services or money held as wealth. The widely-cited MeasuringWorth Foundation – a non-profit spun off the Economic History Association with most of the same datasets – attempts to capture the valuation of money in historical terms along these lines as determined by widely-quoted economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the GDP Deflator, et al.

In numerical terms, the further back one goes in time, the larger the value of a single dollar of said time period in the present day. When considering these amounts in annualized accrual terms (i.e. how much the value of the historical dollar rises on an average yearly basis till the present), however, the valuation intuitively might seem a little off.

Source: MeasuringWorth Foundation, Leverage Shares analysis

Considering the fact that total debt (and thus, «cash» created) was nearly five times higher in 2021 than in 1992, one would expect that value of a dollar to be somewhat proportionately affected. The value accrual metric (and even the dollar equivalent amount) doesn’t indicate this. Also, total debt is 12,211% higher in 2022 than in 1946, which certainly should have been reflected in a valuation far greater than the 1.5X accrual effect shown.

A further issue with the data: the values for 2023 are almost exactly the same in 2022, despite debt being 10% greater. This indicates the (lack of) sensitivity in the estimators relative to the amount of cash effectively in circulation. There are one or more of three likely reasons behind these discrepancies:

  1. Relative to government spending, «pass-through» spending from beneficiaries into the economy trails outward.

  2. Market forces prevent an rapid ballooning of prices in immediate order

  3. The rules defining the indicators are subjected to redone, are limited in data collection to account for variances, etc.

Factors 1 and 2 might be considered as being interrelated: if spending is limited by participants despite receipt of benefits, it is relatively difficult to price goods and services upwards instantaneously. However, given that there is ostensibly cash at hand when it comes to spending beneficiaries, a continual rise of costs is inevitable as said cash gradually enters the system despite (for example) a recessive event having subsided.

(Incidentally, this is also the reason why petrodollar contracts ostensibly cushion the «true» effects of profligate dollar creation: when locked up in the central bank vaults of Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, et al, these dollars are effectively «out of sight, out of mind». When they’re repatriated or «dedollarized», as is the case in recent times2, the cushioning begins to wear thin.)

Factor 3 is less-frequent but tangibly transformative. This is also why the likes of CPI are inherently unsuitable for observing long-term trends and capturing «true» dollar value. The indicators are supposed to be utilized for course corrections by government planners, whose remedies are persistent, continuous and also delayed in effects taking hold. Unfortunately, a large number of market participants have empirically tended to interpret the CPI «print» running «hot» or «cold» as signals for making investment decisions. For all intents and purposes, however, these indicators have increasingly limited potential for providing accurate signalling.

America’s Personal Debt Problems

In a consumption-driven economy, the simplest estimation might be in terms how much consumers have to spend. This isn’t a simple task: data is released at different times (or delayed/discontinued/redefined). Throughout the course of this century until 2022, it can be seen that Americans’ spending potential is showing signs of severe strain on an annualized basis:

Source: Leverage Shares analysis

By the end of 2022, personal savings has seen a 70% fall from the highs witnessed in 2020 with credit card debt showing a 22% increase over the same period. 2022 ended with the highest amount in credit card debt or this century. Meanwhile credit card delinquency rates witnessed a 43% increase in 2022 relative to the previous year.

While official credit card debt data isn’t out for 2023 yet, the New York Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Panel did note in February that 2023 ended with the highest number of credit card accounts registered in the century so far:

Auto loans, mortgages, and home equity revolving loans, in the meantime, are trending flat or downwards. The panel also notes that credit card delinquencies, in particular, rose rapidly in 2023.

Auto loans and mortgages are also beginning to show rising delinquency while the student debt moratorium effectively flattens otherwise high rates of delinquencies.

Other estimations show some related trends: younger demographics are increasingly tending to shrink away from new car purchases and mortgages while older demographics tend to continue spending on long vacations, property purchases/upgrades, new cars, etc. A lifetime of value accruals advantage the latter; a lifetime of cost increases hobble the former.

For the employed masses as a whole, relief by way of progressive wage increases isn’t readily apparent in the present: recently-released data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in fact shows wage growth slowing:

In Conclusion

Through parts of January and during the Q4 earnings season, there were some seeming signs of sector rotation. Given that a volume of economic data relating to 2023 was released throughout February, there is bound to be a number of consequences for market breadth going forward. All in all, market turbulence with a distinct bearish flavor can be expected sooner rather than later.

Professional investors would be hard-pressed to locate resilient market opportunities. On the tactical front, however, there are a number of strategies available as one-click solutions via Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs). Click here for a list of Leverage Shares’ products.


Footnotes:

  1. «The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 days», CNBC, 1 March 2024
  2. «De-dollarisation Is Slowly Changing The World», Leverage Shares, 12 April 2023

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Post correlati

Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Pawel Uchman
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

Sandeep se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2020. Está a cargo de la investigación de líneas de productos existentes y nuevas, clases de activos y estrategias, con un enfoque particular en el análisis de eventos y desarrollos recientes.

Sandeep tiene una larga experiencia en los mercados financieros. Comenzó en un hedge fund con sede en Chicago como ingeniero financiero, su carrera abarcó varios dominios y organizaciones durante un período de 8 años, desde la División de Prime Services de Barclays Capital hasta (más recientemente) el Equipo Index Research de Nasdaq.

Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Copper Ready to Explode

Q2 2024 Market Outlook: Rocky Road Ahead

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies

Currency Impact

Build your own ETP Basket
Leverage Shares: Europe’s top leveraged and inverse ETP provider.
Main ETP benefits
Common investor questions

Get the Newsletter

Never miss out on important announcements. Get premium content ahead of the crowd. Enjoy exclusive insights via the newsletter only.

Bienvenido a Leverage Shares

Términos y Condiciones

Aviso

Si usted no está clasificado como inversor institucional, se le clasificará como inversor privado/minorista. En este momento, no podemos enviar comunicaciones directamente a inversores privados o minoristas. Le invitamos a ver el contenido de este sitio web.

Si usted es un ‘inversionista institucional’, afirma que es un cliente profesional como tal o que desea ser tratado como un cliente de contraparte elegible, según se define en la Directiva de Mercados de Instrumentos Financieros, o un equivalente en un jurisdicción fuera del Espacio Económico Europeo.

Advertencias de Riesgo

El valor de una inversión en ETPs puede tanto subir como bajar y el rendimiento pasado no es un indicador fiable del rendimiento futuro. Es posible que la negociación de ETPs no sea adecuada para todos los tipos de inversores, ya que conllevan un alto grado de riesgo. Usted puede perder toda su inversión inicial. Solo especule con dinero que pueda permitirse perder. Los cambios en los tipos de cambio también pueden hacer que su inversión suba o baje de valor. Las leyes fiscales pueden estar sujetas a cambios. Asegúrese de comprender completamente los riesgos involucrados. Si tiene alguna duda, busque asesoramiento financiero independiente. Los inversores deben consultar la sección titulada «Factores de riesgo» en el prospecto correspondiente para obtener más detalles sobre estos y otros riesgos asociados con una inversión en los valores ofrecidos por el Emisor.

Este sitio web se proporciona solo para su información general y no constituye un consejo de inversión ni una oferta de venta ni la solicitud de una oferta de compra de ninguna inversión.

Nada en este sitio web es un consejo sobre los méritos de ningún producto o inversión, nada constituye un consejo de inversión, legal, fiscal o de otro tipo ni se debe confiar en él para tomar una decisión de inversión. Los inversores potenciales deben obtener asesoramiento de inversión independiente e informarse sobre los requisitos legales aplicables, las normas de control de cambios y los impuestos en su jurisdicción.

Este sitio web cumple con los requisitos reglamentarios del Reino Unido. Puede haber leyes en su país de nacionalidad o residencia o en el país desde el que accede a este sitio web que restrinjan la medida en que el sitio web puede estar disponible para usted.

Visitantes de los Estados Unidos

La información proporcionada en este sitio no está dirigida a ninguna persona de los Estados Unidos ni a ninguna persona en los Estados Unidos, en ninguno de sus Estados o en ninguna de sus territorios o posesiones.

Personas que acceden a este sitio web en el Espacio Económico Europeo

El acceso a este sitio está restringido a personas no estadounidenses fuera de los Estados Unidos en el sentido de la Regulación S de la Ley de Valores de EE. UU. de 1933, enmendada (la «Ley de Valores»). Cada persona que acceda a este sitio, al hacerlo, reconoce que: (1) no es una persona de los EE. UU. (según el significado de la Regulación S de la Ley de Valores) y se encuentra fuera de los EE. UU. (según el significado de la Regulación S de la Ley de Valores). Actuar); y (2) los valores descritos en el presente (A) no se han registrado ni se registrarán en virtud de la Ley de Valores ni con ninguna autoridad reguladora de valores de ningún estado u otra jurisdicción y (B) no pueden ofrecerse, venderse, pignorarse o transferirse de otra manera excepto a personas fuera de los EE. UU. de conformidad con la Regulación S de la Ley de Valores de conformidad con los términos de dichos valores. Ninguno de los fondos en este sitio web está registrado bajo la Ley de Asesores de Inversión de los Estados Unidos de 1940, enmendada (la «Ley de Asesores»).

Exclusión de responsabilidad

Ciertos documentos disponibles en el sitio web han sido preparados y emitidos por personas ajenas a Leverage Shares Management Company. Esto incluye cualquier documento de Prospecto. Leverage Shares Management Company no es responsable de ninguna manera por el contenido de dicho documento. Salvo en estos casos, la información contenida en el sitio web se ha facilitado de buena fe y se han realizado todos los esfuerzos posibles para garantizar su exactitud. Sin embargo, Leverage Shares Management Company no será responsable de las pérdidas ocasionadas como resultado de la confianza depositada en cualquier parte del sitio web y no garantiza la precisión de la información o el contenido del sitio web. La descripción de cualquier Valor ETP mencionado en este sitio web es general. Los términos y condiciones aplicables a los inversores se establecerán en el Folleto, disponible en el sitio web y deben leerse antes de realizar cualquier inversión.

Inversión con apalancamiento

Los productos cotizados en bolsa (ETP) de Leverage Shares brindan una exposición apalancada y solo son adecuados para inversores experimentados con conocimiento de los riesgos y beneficios potenciales de las estrategias de inversión apalancadas.

Cookies

Leverage Shares Management Company puede recopilar datos sobre su computadora, incluidos, cuando estén disponibles, su dirección IP, sistema operativo y tipo de navegador, para la administración del sistema y otros fines similares (haga clic aquí para obtener más información). Estos son datos estadísticos sobre las acciones y patrones de navegación de los usuarios, y no identifican a ningún usuario individual del sitio web. Esto se logra mediante el uso de cookies. Una cookie es un pequeño archivo de letras y números que se coloca en su computadora si acuerda aceptarlo. Al hacer clic en ‘Acepto’ a continuación, usted acepta el uso de cookies como se describe aquí. Estas cookies le permiten distinguirse de otros usuarios del sitio web, lo que ayuda a Leverage Shares Company a brindarle una mejor experiencia cuando navega por el sitio web y también permite que el sitio web se mejore de vez en cuando. Tenga en cuenta que puede ajustar la configuración de su navegador para eliminar o bloquear las cookies, pero es posible que no pueda acceder a partes de nuestro sitio web sin ellas.

Este sitio web es mantenido por Leverage Shares Management Company, que es una sociedad de responsabilidad limitada y está constituida en Irlanda con domicilio social en 2 Grand Canal Square, Grand Canal Harbour, Dublin 2.

Al hacer clic, acepta los Términos y condiciones que se muestran.