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S&P 500 Finishes Strong
The S&P 500 index, a measure of large-cap U.S. stocks, has risen modestly over the past six months, bringing its year-to-date increase to 15%.
This marks the strongest start to the year for the index in any presidential election year.
The S&P 500’s first-half performance aligns with similar gains observed in 2023 and 2021, but the 15% increase is notably higher than the historical average gain of 4.72%.[1]
Source: Bespoke
The S&P 500 consists of the 500 largest stocks by market capitalization listed on U.S. exchanges, serving as a key indicator for the health of the US economy.
A select group of Big Tech stocks has propelled the S&P 500’s rally this year. Nvidia’s shares have skyrocketed by 150% in the first half of 2024, contributing nearly a third of the index’s returns.
Additionally, shares of Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have all outperformed the S&P 500 index this year.
Over-Concentration
The AI theme has dominated this entire year and significantly driven the concentration in the overall market.
The largest 10 companies in the S&P 500 are responsible for 35% of the market capitalization but only 23% of earnings.[2]
This unprecedented disparity indicates a record level of market optimism regarding future earnings for these top companies.
Essentially, the S&P 500 is not just highly concentrated but also historically quite bullish on the future earnings of a few companies.
July the best month to invest
Looking ahead, July is a great time to invest in equities.
Historical data since 1928 shows that the first two weeks of July are typically the strongest period of the year, providing an encouraging outlook.
Source: BofA
Since 1928, the first 10 trading days of July have been the strongest period for the S&P 500. During this time, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.5% gain and increased 69% of the time.
Investors can long the US 500 largest companies using our 3x US 500, 5x US 500.
Alternatively, traders can short the US 500 largest companies using our -3x US 500.
Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at
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