Article by Edward Sheldon
SpaceX Forecasts Post Q2 Earnings Range from 140 to 800
August 6, 2026 | Research Insights
On August 4, SpaceX posted its earnings for the second quarter of 2026. The numbers were impressive, with revenue comfortably topping expectations1.
Wall Street analysts, however, remain deeply divided on the stock's potential. Looking at analysts’ post-earnings stock price forecasts, they range from $140 to $8002.
Prolific Revenue Growth
For the second quarter3 of 2026, SpaceX’s revenue came in at $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year and ahead of the consensus forecast of $6.9 billion1. Breaking this top-line figure down:
- Space revenue was $962 million, up 29%
- Connectivity revenue was $4,291 million, up 66%
- AI revenue was $2,561 million, up 248%
Encouragingly, adjusted EBITDA was both positive and significantly higher than in the prior-year quarter. It came in at $3,538 million versus $1,214 million a year earlier, helped by a big increase in AI-driven income.
On the downside, AI capex was significantly higher than in Q2 2025. This amounted to $15,828 million versus $749 million a year earlier.
This surge in AI spending was no doubt a key factor behind the stock’s post-earnings drop. Right now, investors are wary of companies that are spending substantial amounts of money on AI with no clear ROI projections.
Earnings Call Insights
On the earnings call4, CEO Elon Musk said that he expects SpaceX to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026. He also said that the company’s internal projection for $1 trillion in revenue has moved up to 2030 from 2031, with a “non-zero chance” of reaching that level in 2029.
In terms of operational aspirations, Musk said that with Starship – its next-generation rocket – the company hopes to deliver well over one million tons to orbit per year, and ultimately 10million tons per year in the long run. Currently, its Falcon rockets deliver around roughly 2,500 tons a year to orbit while the rest of the world delivers around 300 tons.
Musk also said he sees a major step change coming from Starlink’s next generation V3 satellites. The company expects to launch about 10 times as many V3 satellites as V2 satellites, which would create a roughly a 100x increase in delivered bandwidth.
Looking ahead, Musk said that it’s not out of the question that at some point, Starlink could deliver the majority of the world’s internet, at least in the countries it operates in. He noted that with the advent of AI, humanoid robotics, and vehicle robotics, the appetite for bandwidth will be much greater than it has been in the past.
SpaceX Stock Price Forecasts
Since the company’s earnings, numerous Wall Street firms have posted price targets2 for SpaceX stock. However, the forecasts vary dramatically as can be seen in the table below.
All of these targets are above the current stock price though, signaling that the analyst community as a whole sees upside potential in the medium term. Given this bullish sentiment, SpaceX stock is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Footnotes:
1CNBC, SpaceX earnings takeaways: Soaring AI costs outweigh revenue beat in first report since IPO, as of August 5, 2026
2Investing.com, as of August 5, 2026
3SpaceX, SpaceX Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results, as of August 4, 2026
4Investing.com, Earnings call transcript: SpaceX beats revenue estimates in Q2 2026, shares swing, as of August 4, 2026
