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Gold’s Breakout to Fresh Record Highs
Global demand for gold has surged since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with prices rising more than 130% from its September 2022 levels. Gold has shown remarkable resilience this year, rising 40% year-to-date and strongly outperforming global equity markets.
Gold’s rally has been fuelled by a combination of supportive factors, including inflation concerns, expectations of the Fed resuming an easing cycle, a softer U.S. dollar, and robust central bank demand. Persistent geopolitical tensions, elevated global debt levels, weaker U.S. growth prospects, and tariff-driven inflation risks have further driven investors toward gold, while growing worries over U.S. fiscal discipline and the Federal Reserve’s institutional independence have intensified the search for stability, strengthening the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty.
Gold Shines as Dollar Weakens and Rate Cut Bets Mount
Gold surged to an all-time high of $3,739 per ounce on Tuesday and is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979. The latest rally follows dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the market widely expecting three interest rates cuts this year. 1
The latest rally comes amid the U.S. dollar slumping to a ten-week low, amplifying bullion’s allure. Non-yielding assets such as gold typically outperform in a low-rate environment, as they become more attractive relative to government bonds.
Gold Gains on U.S. Policy Uncertainty and Eroding Fed Independence
Uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs has also been a driver of gold. Additionally, Trump’s direct conflict with the Federal Reserve have shaken confidence in U.S. policymaking, further undermining the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. 2
Trump’s political pressure on the central bank could erode institutional credibility and may accelerate foreign diversification away from dollar-denominated assets, boosting the strategic case for gold.
Inflation, Stagflation Fears, and Fed Easing Expectations
Despite headline inflation stabilizing, underlying concerns about stagflation are fuelling demand for bullion. Gold is increasingly seen as a hedge against stagflation, a scenario where inflation persists while growth and labour markets deteriorate.
Recent weak payrolls data and the highest unemployment rate since 2021 3 have locked in expectations of the Fed delivering three interest rate cuts this year, pushing gold prices higher. Futures imply more than 100 basis points of easing under Powell’s watch before his term ends in May 2026.
Source: TradingView
Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at
Technical Analysis
After an explosive rally in early 2025, gold entered a consolidation phase from April, forming an ascending triangle – a continuation pattern typically resolved to the upside. The resistance of $3,499 was broken in early September, confirming the bullish pattern and opening the way for a measured move toward the $3,800-$3,900 zone based on the triangle’s height projection.
While a short-term pull back is possible as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in strongly overbought territory, momentum remains firmly anchored within the 40-80% bull market band, reinforcing the bullish outlook over the long-term. Given the positive fundamental and technical backdrop, we see levels to $4,500 achievable in 2026.
Why Gold Miners ETFs Are Now Outperforming Gold and What’s Next in 2026
In 2024, gold miners ETFs lagged behind the performance of gold itself despite a favourable environment for the metal. The main reason was that mining companies faced elevated costs across the board, from energy and fuel to labour and equipment, which eroded the profitability benefits of higher gold prices. While gold was seen as a pure safe-haven asset, miners were treated as equities, leaving them vulnerable to pressure from high real interest rates and broad equity market underperformance relative to gold.
The story has changed in 2025. With oil prices dropping year-to-date and other input costs stabilizing, miners are enjoying healthier margins as gold prices kept rising. Years of balance sheet repair and disciplined capital spending are paying off, with many companies now able to generate strong free cash flow and return capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. This combination of leverage to the gold price and the appeal of equity income has attracted flows into gold miners ETFs, leading them to outperform bullion. 4
Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook for gold miners will hinge on the macroeconomic backdrop. If the Federal Reserve follows through with its projected rate cuts and the U.S. dollar weakens further, gold should remain well supported, setting the stage for miners to extend their outperformance. Inflation is likely to stay elevated, not least because tariffs will be passed on to consumers, and a combination of sticky prices and looser monetary policy could push real interest rates into negative territory, a scenario historically favourable for gold. In such an environment, miners stand to benefit disproportionately, as revenues rise with gold while operating costs remain relatively stable, driving robust earnings growth.
We expect valuations to continue to re-aligning with these stronger fundamentals. Should gold hold its ground or advance further, miners are well positioned to deliver superior returns compared with bullion itself.
Source: TradingView, 19 September 2025.
Investors Pour Billions into Gold and Miners ETFs Amid Bullion’s Price Rally
Investor appetite for gold shows no sign of cooling as prices surge to record highs. In August alone, commodities-focused funds dominated by precious metals attracted more than $6 billion in new capital, lifting total inflows for 2025 to $31 billion. That marks the second-largest tally in the past 15 years and puts this year on track to potentially surpass the $44 billion record set in 2020. Precious-metals equity funds also benefited, pulling in $1.3 billion in August, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF standing out as a key vehicle for investors seeking leveraged exposure to the gold rally. 5
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), boasting $20.0 billion in net assets, much larger than the size of its nearest rival, stands as the sector’s benchmark. So far in 2025, GDX has surged 103.7%, while the Leverage Shares +3x Long Miners ETP designed to provide 3 times its daily performance has soared 484.7%, far outpacing gold’s 40% gain and the S&P 500’s 12% advance.
Conclusion:
Gold’s rally has been impressive, but miners may offer even greater upside. With earnings rising faster than share prices and valuations still attractive, mining equities appear poised for re-rating. Under-owned, undervalued, and supported by structural demand for bullion, miners could continue to outperform the metal itself.
The Leverage Shares +3x Long Gold Miners ETP provides professional investors with leveraged exposure to the gold mining sector earnings potential, and in this environment, the ETP offers an opportunity to capture amplified returns while maintaining a focused exposure to gold miners.
Footnotes:
Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.
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