- Leverage & Inverse ETPs
- Instruments
- Why Us
Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.
The buying of gold – and its consideration as an investment asset class – is presently appearing differentiated through geopolitics. In Q1 2026, overall gold demand in volume was a modest 2% higher in year-on-year terms.
Gold Investing Trends by Segment and RegionBuy-ins into physical gold bars and coins represented the biggest share of total purchases1 made in Q1 2026 in all of the 21st century.
Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at
Source: Metals Focus; World Gold Council. Image redesign by Leverage Shares
As central banks grapple with supply shocks from the war in the Middle East, government bond yields are likely to stay elevated until a clearer path for policy rates emerges. Asian investors bought in at substantial strength while Western investors mostly turned away – likely in favour of AI-relevant stocks, energy products, and so forth. The divergence in choice implies that demand for gold ETFs, et al could be positive but lower than levels seen in 2025 through Q2 2025.
The price of gold in various currencies was broadly bullish across the board for Q1 2026:
Source: Metals Focus; World Gold Council. Image redesign by Leverage Shares
One major outperformer in terms of price growth was the Turkish lira – persistent high inflation continually pulled down the lira relative to gold.
The slight softening in gold prices in periods of Q1 was largely on account of notions of market ease from the potential end of tariffs, global energy prices holding steady to easing, and interest switching on to AI-relevant themes. March neatly severed that and put gold on a bullish trajectory again – with the US government’s frequent claims of conflict de-escalation and ceasefire becoming less and less relevant towards pulling investors away from seeking havens.
Gold ETFs registered a resolute growth in Asset Under Management (AUM) in quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1 2025 and largely led by 3 countries with distinct patterns:
Source: Metals Focus; World Gold Council. Image redesign by Leverage Shares
Chinese investors supplanted the US as the biggest set of buy-ins into Gold ETFs in net tonnes as falling local equity markets, weakening of currency and a drive for safe‑haven buying propelled interest. US investors, in contrast, were net sellers.
Meanwhile, despite profit-taking in the second half of Q1 2026, Indian investors registered a net increase for Q1 2026 – with a fair amount of dip-buying manifesting in March.
Japanese investors also consistently contributed to AUM via both local gold-backed funds and funds investing in gold ETFs listed in other regions.
Central Banks’ Gold TrendsGlobal central bank demand started off 2026 with estimated net purchases of 244 tonnes in Q1 2026.
Source: Metals Focus; World Gold Council. Image redesign by Leverage Shares
However, not all central banks were aligned in quite the same directions: Developed Economies continued to repose on US Treasury holdings while Emerging Markets economies – particularly those not part of the U.S. security umbrella – continued to buy into gold as a means of “de-risking”.
Some central banks also sold assets during the quarter, with gold performing its role as indispensable reserve asset that is accessible during times of extreme market turbulence. In data for the quarter through February2, gold selling was led by three major central banks:
Source: IMF; Central Banks; World Gold Council. Image redesign by Leverage Shares
The largest seller of gold in Q1 2026 was Turkey, where official sector holdings fell around 70 tonnes (approximately 10% of its total official holdings) in a bid to stabilize the lira. Most of the sales were in March, with the central bank utilizing an additional 80 tonnes via gold swaps for FX and liquidity purposes during the same month. These sales appear to be tactical in nature: the central bank had done this 2020 and 2023 as well before building up holdings again.
Both the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan and the Central Bank of Russia sold around 22 tonnes each while Bulgaria transferred 2 tonnes to the European Central Bank as part of its Euro adoption.
The National Bank of Poland was the largest buyer of gold in Q1 2026 at 31 tonnes. The central bank appears to be fixed on its goal of reaching 700 tonnes (it’s currently at around 582 tonnes). The Central Bank of Uzbekistan was the second-largest buyer at 25 tonnes.
The sale of gold assets might have acted as an additional signal for global gold investors to off-load and take profits. Another factor was the modestly-increased supply of gold via mining: Q1 2026 was in all-time high in the 21st century in terms of gold production in the first quarter of the year.
Source: Metals Focus; World Gold Council. Image redesign by Leverage Shares
Mali witnessed a massive 30% YoY ramp-up after Barrick Mining arrived at a resolution in its long-standing dispute with the government, Indonesia registered a 19% ramp-up after production from Batu Hijau scaled following a sizable mill expansion, while Canada registered project ramp-ups across various mining operations.
Namibia and Mexico are reported to have registered declines – by 35% and 12% respectively – from lower grade stockpile processing.
Outlook for the Rest of 2026The sale by some central banks isn’t a bug but a feature; in effect, gold is fulfilling its long-held purpose of being a storehouse of value ready for times of need. There is effectively no change in overall central bank trends in terms of favour for gold buying.
The rise of geopolitical tensions and the potential of further fragmentation have also led to some interesting developments. As of March 2023, the Reserve Bank of India had3 348.6 tonnes of its gold deposited in the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Switzerland. Since March 2023 through September 2025, 274 tonnes of gold were repatriated into vaults distributed across India while the central bank continued to buy gold assets globally.
One factor behind this can be estimated as being the fallout from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict wherein the imposition of sanctions on Russia was followed by the seizure of its assets overseas as well as the assets of Russian individuals and companies. Even if the conflict were to end, Russia likely faces an uphill battle in recovering all of its assets. This is a situation any sovereign central bank could reasonably be expected to avoid.
While market behaviour is essentially divided between East and West, it is entirely possible that this is a transitive phase. As the Middle East conflict drags on, the energy supply situation remains volatile, and inflation eats away at purchasing power, the allure of gold as an investment vehicle can be expected to rise.
Professional investors might consider the +3x Long Gold ETP (GLD3) and the -3x Short Gold ETP (GLDS) for magnified exposure to the price of gold during bullish and bearish trends respectively. Also at hand are the +3x Long Gold Miners ETP (GDX3) and the -3x Short Gold Miners ETP (GDXS) for exposure to the gold mining sector in similar terms. The +3x Long Silver ETP (SLV3) and the -3x Short Silver ETP (SLVS) are at hand for magnified exposure during bullish and bearish trends in silver.
Footnotes:
Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.
Share this:
INVESTOR TYPE:
LOCATION:
Never miss out on important announcements. Get premium content ahead of the crowd. Enjoy exclusive insights via the newsletter only.
