The minutes from the FOMC meeting released on Wednesday showed that Federal Reserve officials agreed in November that they would need to soon slow down the pace of interest rate hikes as the treat of recession grows. While noting that inflation had still not shown significant signs of abating, a large majority of participants signalled that a slowing in the pace of increases would soon be appropriate.
Although the Fed still expects rates to rise higher than previously forecast, senior officials have issued somewhat varied opinions about the outlook for monetary policy, as they are unsure how much further rates need to increase to start to affect the labor market, inflation, and the overall economy. Slower rate hikes would give them more time to evaluate the lagging effects on the economy; however, this uncertainty cements the likelihood of further hikes until there is direct evidence of a slowdown in inflation and employment.
The minutes reaffirmed investors’ expectations that the Fed is likely to hike by 50 basis point at its December policy meeting and 25 basis point at the end of January. Fed officials for the first time said a recession was possible next year, according to the detailed summary of the bank’s last strategy session in early November.
A few officials suggested a “pause” in rate increases might be warranted in the first half of 2023 to see how the recent hikes affect the economy. A rapid easing of inflationary pressures could strengthen this possibility.
At this juncture a slower pace of rate hikes is largely priced in, and investors’ attention has shifted to the terminal funds rate. The terminal rate is also a very important factor for the central bank, though Fed officials acknowledged that there remains significant uncertainty about the ultimate level of the federal funds rate needed to achieve the Committee’s objectives.
The market is widely expecting rates to peak at 5.00% to 5.25% next year, which would be the highest level over the past 16 years. The Fed’s aggressive posture arises from the biggest surge in inflation since 1980s. The Fed has been aiming to bring down inflation around its target level of 2%, but they acknowledge it could take a while.
Also on Wednesday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November showed an improvement in the mood of consumers, while housing, manufacturing and services activity were weaker than expected. Several Fed members expressed worries that some institutions could amplify the problems for the U.S. economy if higher rates exposed them to greater instability.
As the Federal Reserve’s November meeting minutes showed support for slowing of rate hikes soon, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar slipped, while equity markets rebounded further. However, such reaction might be short-lived as overall rates are high enough and may prove painful for risk assets, with the technology sector particularly vulnerable. Although, the current rebound could extend further in the very short-term, the NASDAQ 100 index is facing stiff overhead resistance exerted by its medium-term down trend line, crossing at 12,360. Momentum conditions are far from encouraging and our baseline scenario is further weakness to unfold, once the current leg up is complete. The potential medium-term downside target for the index is 9,800.
Trading volume was thin ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday which is likely to remain subdued on Friday with the U.S. stock market open for a half-session. We expect volatility to kick in next week, as the economic calendar is jam-packed with key economic data.
Active traders looking to gain magnified exposure to the NASDAQ 100 index may consider our Short and Leveraged 3x US Tech 100 ETPs.
Violeta è entrata a far parte di Leverage Shares nel settembre 2022. È responsabile dello svolgimento di analisi tecniche e ricerche macroeconomiche ed azionarie, fornendo pregiate informazioni per aiutare a definire le strategie di investimento per i clienti.
Prima di cominciare con LS, Violeta ha lavorato presso diverse società di investimento di alto profilo in Australia, come Tollhurst e Morgans Financial, dove ha trascorso gli ultimi 12 anni della sua carriera.
Violeta è un tecnico di mercato certificato dall’Australian Technical Analysts Association e ha conseguito un diploma post-laurea in finanza applicata e investimenti presso Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, dove è stata docente per diversi anni.
Julian è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares nel 2018 come parte della prima espansione della società in Europa orientale. È responsabile della progettazione di strategie di marketing e della promozione della notorietà del marchio.
Oktay è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares alla fine del 2019. È responsabile della crescita aziendale, mantenendo relazioni chiave e sviluppando attività di vendita nei mercati di lingua inglese.
È entrato in LS da UniCredit, dove è stato responsabile delle relazioni aziendali per le multinazionali. La sua precedente esperienza è in finanza aziendale e amministrazione di fondi in società come IBM Bulgaria e DeGiro / FundShare.
Oktay ha conseguito una laurea in Finanza e contabilità ed un certificato post-laurea in Imprenditoria presso il Babson College. Ha ottenuto anche la certificazione CFA.