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Stocks Tumble on Weak Earnings

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The rally of the major U.S. benchmark indices fizzled ahead of reporting season which is in full swing this week. Corporate earnings updates from some of the biggest names are due during the week with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google and Intel reporting. These five stocks have accounted for two-thirds of the S&P 500’s gains this year, so their updates will be scrutinised by investors.

Traders are keenly awaiting data on first quarter GDP due on Thursday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, and the employment cost index, both due on Friday. These reports are important and would help refine the final decision of the Federal Reserve in regard to interest rates.

The first reading on the U.S. annual GDP is expected to slow to 2.0% for the March quarter, from 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. While the headline PCE price index is expected to fall, the core reading is forecast to increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year. The employment cost index is also expected to tick higher, consistent with still sticky inflation.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool there is 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25-basis point interest rate hike at its May policy meeting on the 3rd of May, which is likely to be the last one for this cycle. Rates are likely to be on hold from then on with cuts on the horizon towards the end of the year.

While the containment of the recent banking stress is a big positive, there’s a growing sense that it will leave its mark on the global economy, even if the acute phase of the crisis seems to be over. The risks to the financial system are not as pressing as they were in March but that doesn’t mean the crisis is over.

While earnings results have been solid so far, this reporting season is not shaping to be a great one. According to analysts’ projections profits are expected to drop 6.2% from a year earlier, which would mark the largest decline since the second quarter of 2020. Estimates have come down significantly from last year’s highs and while bottom-line beats significantly outnumber misses, investors’ focus is on forward guidance.

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Source: Tradingview

Warnings of recession amid high inflation and high interest rates are widespread and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of a “perilous combination of vulnerabilities” in markets. The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) warns that central banks are dealing with high inflation coinciding with very high debt levels, which threatens economic stability.

The U.S. is in the midst of a “freight recession” as fewer trucks are delivering goods around the country. The classic recession indicators are flushing a red light too as the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has dropped for the 12th consecutive time.

The U.S. benchmark index gained more than 9% from its March low, fuelled by increased liquidity from authorities to relieve the regional banking crisis. As momentum has faded over the past two weeks, investors are questioning if the rally in the lead-up to first quarter earnings season could be sustained, as underwhelming quarterly results reinforce the prospect of deterioration in profit growth.

The rally took a breather around its previous multiple level of resistance at 4,195 showing that the bulls are running out of steam. The leading Relative Strength Index indicator broke below its support on Tuesday showing that momentum has deteriorated, hinting that a potential short-term pull back is on the cards.

Active traders looking for magnified exposure to the U.S. share market may consider our 3x Long US 500 and -3x Short US 500 ETPs.

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Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

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Certain documents made available on the website have been prepared and issued by persons other than Leverage Shares Management Company. This includes any Prospectus document. Leverage Shares Management Company is not responsible in any way for the content of any such document. Except in those cases, the information on the website has been given in good faith and every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy. Nevertheless, Leverage Shares Management Company shall not be responsible for loss occasioned as a result of reliance placed on any part of the website and it makes no guarantee as to the accuracy of any information or content on the website. The description of any ETP Security referred to in this website is a general one. The terms and conditions applicable to investors will be set out in the Prospectus, available on the website and should be read prior to making any investment.

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This website is maintained by Leverage Shares Management Company, which is a limited liability company and is incorporated in Ireland with registered offices at 2 Grand Canal Square, Grand Canal Harbour, Dublin 2.

By clicking you agree to the Terms and Conditions displayed.

Terms and Conditions

Notice

If you are not classified as an institutional investor, you will be categorised as a private/retail investor. At this time, we cannot send communications directly to private/retail investors. You are welcome to view the contents of this website.

If you are an ‘Institutional investor’, you affirm either that you are a Per Se Professional Client, or that you wish to be treated as an Eligible Counterparty Client, both as defined under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, or an equivalent in a jurisdiction outside the European Economic Area.

Risk Warnings

The value of an investment in ETPs may go down as well as up and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Trading in ETPs may not be suitable for all types of investor as they carry a high degree of risk. You may lose all of your initial investment. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose. Changes in exchange rates may also cause your investment to go up or down in value. Tax laws may be subject to change. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. If in any doubt, please seek independent financial advice. Investors should refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in the securities offered by the Issuer.

This website is provided for your general information only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment.

Nothing on this website is advice on the merits of any product or investment, nothing constitutes investment, legal, tax or any other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment decision. Prospective investors should obtain independent investment advice and inform themselves as to applicable legal requirements, exchange control regulations and taxes in their jurisdiction.

This website complies with the regulatory requirements of the United Kingdom. There may be laws in your country of nationality or residence or in the country from which you access this website which restrict the extent to which the website may be made available to you.

United States Visitors

The information provided on this site is not directed to any United States person or any person in the United States, any state thereof, or any of its territories or possessions.

Persons accessing this website in the European Economic Area

Access to this site is restricted to Non-U.S. Persons outside the United States within the meaning of Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Each person accessing this site, by so doing, acknowledges that: (1) it is not a U.S. person (within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act) and is located outside the U.S. (within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act); and (2) any securities described herein (A) have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction and (B) may not be offered, sold, pledged or otherwise transferred except to persons outside the U.S. in accordance with Regulation S under the Securities Act pursuant to the terms of such securities. None of the funds on this website are registered under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the “Advisers Act”).

Exclusion of Liability

Certain documents made available on the website have been prepared and issued by persons other than Leverage Shares Management Company. This includes any Prospectus document. Leverage Shares Management Company is not responsible in any way for the content of any such document. Except in those cases, the information on the website has been given in good faith and every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy. Nevertheless, Leverage Shares Management Company shall not be responsible for loss occasioned as a result of reliance placed on any part of the website and it makes no guarantee as to the accuracy of any information or content on the website. The description of any ETP Security referred to in this website is a general one. The terms and conditions applicable to investors will be set out in the Prospectus, available on the website and should be read prior to making any investment.

Leverage Investment

Leverage Shares exchange-traded products (ETPs) provide leveraged exposure and are only suitable for experienced investors with knowledge of the risks and potential benefits of leveraged investment strategies.

Cookies

Leverage Shares Management Company may collect data about your computer, including, where available, your IP address, operating system and browser type, for system administration and other similar purposes (click here for more information). These are statistical data about users’ browsing actions and patterns, and they do not identify any individual user of the website. This is achieved by the use of cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that is put on your computer if you agree to accept it. By clicking ‘I agree’ below, you are consenting to the use of cookies as described here. These cookies allow you to be distinguished from other users of the website, which helps Leverage Shares Company provide you with a better experience when you browse the website and also allows the website to be improved from time to time. Please note that you can adjust your browser settings to delete or block cookies, but you may not be able to access parts of our website without them.

This website is maintained by Leverage Shares Management Company, which is a limited liability company and is incorporated in Ireland with registered offices at 2 Grand Canal Square, Grand Canal Harbour, Dublin 2.

By clicking you agree to the Terms and Conditions displayed.