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S&P 500 Moves Higher

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  • US companies exceed profit forecasts, fueled by cost management.
  • Reduced inflation and a cooling labor market boost stock prices.


Profit Surge

Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policies continue to be central themes as financial markets adjust to a prolonged period of high interest rates.

In an environment where investors analyze every piece of data for its potential impact on Federal Reserve decisions, the significance of corporate profits, a crucial factor in determining long-term market returns, is often overlooked.

US largest companies are on track to post their best quarterly earnings relative to expectations in at least two years, as they’ve worked to keep costs down over fears of a recession.

Most of the S&P 500 companies that have reported this quarter have posted profits on average 8.4% higher than expected. About 79% have beaten profit expectations, compared to 76% last quarter.[1]

The anticipation of a recession may be contributing to the notable outperformance. Companies are strengthening their bottom lines, cutting costs, and stockpiling cash to stave off the impacts of an economic slowdown.

Revenues are coming close to expectations due to a stable macroeconomic environment, which makes it easier for analysts to predict sales and for companies to plan.

As a result, the indices are trending up, with the S&P 500 nearing this year’s highs.

Source: yahoo finance

Cooling Labour Market & Fed Comments Lift Markets

Also, less-hawkish-than-feared commentary from the Federal Reserve and signs that the labor market has cooled a bit has helped propel the market higher.

Inflation has already fallen sharply from a peak in 2022. The question is whether it can return to the Fed’s 2% target, as measured by the central bank’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index.

Stripping out volatile food and energy categories, 12-month core PCE inflation dropped to 2.9% at the end of last year from 4.9% at the start of the year. But it has since stalled, standing at 2.8%[1] at its latest reading in March.

Many economists remain optimistic that inflation will resume its downward trajectory. Official measures of housing inflation have remained stubbornly high, but economists still expect them to moderate to come more in line with private-sector gauges of new rent increases.

Inflation in other types of services tends to move slowly both on the way up and on the way down.

The recent report showing cooling in the labor market was a positive sign for the markets since labor costs tend to be a major driver of price changes in this category.


Investors can long the largest 500 companies in the US using our 3x US 500, 5x US 500.

Alternatively, traders can short the largest 500 companies in the US using our -3x US 500.


  1. Factset
  2. Fred
Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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