Mercedes-Benz Q4: China Sales Dip, EV Pivot Delays

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

Estimating long-term fiscal trends in German legacy powerhouse Mercedes-Benz Group AG have been slightly complicated by the after-effects of the “hive-off and spin-down” – followed by the public listing1 – of its truck/heavy vehicle division into Daimler Truck Holding AG in December 2021 as well as some segment reorganization. However, some interesting new line items and early trends are now apparent in its earnings release on Friday.

Trend Overview

It was only in 2022 that Daimler Truck’s revenues were largely absent in the Fiscal Year reports released by the company. A separation of value added by virtue of it being tagged as “discontinued operations” is present in both 2020 and 2020. With this in mind, an overview of trends going forward from 2019 in relative importance in line item ratios while also considering trends from 2020 onwards reveal a number of key items of interest:

Source: Company Financials, Leverage Shares analysis

It is immediately apparent that the ratio of costs as well as net profits relative to revenues underwent a substantial unloading in 2021: a 6% improvement in the former ratio immediately led to a 14% improvement in the latter in 2021. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) relative to gross profit as well as revenues witnessed even more pronounced effects. Cost of sales remain tangled till 2021 but Daimler Truck’s “discontinued operations” revenues do manifest as massive bumps in Year-on-Year (YoY) net profit, EBIT and Earnings Per Share (EPS) trends in 2021.

In the two years since, revenues as well as cost of sales have shown a consistent uptrend. However, growth trends in EBIT and EPS for 2023 show a slight downtick relative to the excellent improvements seen in the year prior.

Region-wise, revenue contributions are pretty stable: Europe provides around 40%, North America provides around 26%, while Asia makes up the bulk of the balance. However, there are some very interesting trends manifesting:

Source: Company Financials, Leverage Shares analysis

While 2022 was a massive boost in revenues in all three top regions, Asia is witnessing the greatest downtrends relative to the entire world primarily led by China which, as referenced in an earlier article2, is facing headwinds decades in the making.

From 2021 onwards, the company also delineated its segments into “Cars”, “Vans” and “Mobility”. The “Mobility” segment finances, leases and insures the company’s products whilst also providing banking and credit/debit cards services around the world. Given how financing is intricately linked with sales, a reconciliation pullback, that typically runs at 4%, is in effect over the past three years.

Rather helpfully, the company has been providing segment-wise line items since 2021, which show some interesting early trends:

Source: Company Financials, Leverage Shares analysis

By a considerable margin, “Vans” are trending with the biggest growth in contribution to total revenue, gross profit and EBIT. In 2023, with revenue from “Cars” running flat and contribution to EBIT trending significantly downwards, financing division “Mobility” has been dipping in revenue contribution whilst exhibiting an increasingly higher drag on gross profit as well as EBIT. “Vans” essentially keeps the boat afloat.

In Conclusion

In 2024, the company expects3 the “Mobility” segment’s interest margins to be under pressure for at least the first half of the year and for the 1st quarter to be under the guidance corridor previously announced. Given that rates will be “high for longer” in key North America and Europe regions, it’s quite likely that this segment will continue to be a drag for a considerably longer period.

In 2021, Mercedes-Benz had signaled a massive commitment towards offering only Electric Vehicles (EVs) wherever “market conditions allow” by 2030. To pursue this all-electric goal, the company stated in 2022 that “Vans” will be realigning its European production network around the modular all-electric VAN.EA platform with its site in Jawor (Poland) being integrated into the production network for this purpose. The company also states that it will be spending far more on the development of VAN.EA in 2024.

In the present, Mercedes Benz drops this ambitious “all-electric” target” by stating that customers and market conditions will “set the pace” of its all-electric goal while assuring “different customer needs” will be serviced well into the 2030s. As early as September last year, Group CEO Ola Källenius asserted that4 neither the European market nor the company’s products in the region will be all-electric by 2030. Instead, Mr Källenius hopes to maintain tactical flexibility by having the same production line roll out both EVs and ICE-powered cars. It isn’t an altogether surprising announcement, given that EV sales volumes are faltering all over the Western Hemisphere.

Overall, the company is a very important (and profitable) mover in the global automotive space, mainly by virtue of its ability to offer premium- to luxury-tier products. However, macroeconomic conditions weigh heavily on the cheaper end of its spectrum of products on offer while competition is intense on the “pricier” end.

Presently, the company’s fortunes seems to be pinned on success in the premium light commercial vehicle space via the upcoming “eSprinter”; early pre-sales/sales figure will likely give a boost to the share price but it’s more likely that its existing line-up will continue to be the big draw for customers throughout the year. Whether that shores up early trends of declines in car sales by the company or the drag induced by its financing division remains to be seen.

On the company’s stock front, Group management made an additional (interesting) announcement: it will continue with its share repurchase program from Q3 2024, for which it had allocated 4 billion Euros of which half has been completed, and then allocate another 3 billion Euros to purchase even more until Q2 2025. Following the purchase, these shares will be liquidated while a “sustainably attractive dividend target” with a payout ratio at 40% of the company’s Net Income will be pursued for the remainder.

Given the uncertainty regarding the business environment versus the company’s dominant leadership in its catered vehicle segments plus the ambitious goals for dividend payouts in an environment where sustained passive income is a highly-sought investor goal and the shoring up of value via buybacks and liquidation, it’s a very interesting “wait and see” situation.


  1. “Daimler Truck launched on stock exchange as an independent company”, Daimler Truck Financial News, 10 December 2021
  2. “China’s Economy: In Recession?”, Leverage Shares, 22 December 2023
  3. “Mercedes-Benz Outlook 2024”, Mercedes-Benz Investor Relations, 22 February 2024
  4. “Mercedes-Benz: Europe likely won’t be ready for all-electric sales by 2030”, Reuters, 4 September 2023
Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Related Posts

Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Sandeep Rao
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Sandeep Rao
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Sandeep Rao
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets
Recent fiscal trends show top European carmakers having a deep dependence on Asian markets

Sandeep Rao


Sandeep joined Leverage Shares in September 2020. He leads research on existing and new product lines, asset classes, and strategies, with special emphasis on analysis of recent events and developments.

Sandeep has longstanding experience with financial markets. Starting with a Chicago-based hedge fund as a financial engineer, his career has spanned a variety of domains and organizations over a course of 8 years – from Barclays Capital’s Prime Services Division to (most recently) Nasdaq’s Index Research Team.

Sandeep holds an M.S. in Finance as well as an MBA from Illinois Institute of Technology Chicago.

Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta joined Leverage Shares in September 2022. She is responsible for conducting technical analysis, macro and equity research, providing valuable insights to help shape investment strategies for clients.

Prior to joining LS, Violeta worked at several high-profile investment firms in Australia, such as Tollhurst and Morgans Financial where she spent the past 12 years of her career.

Violeta is a certified market technician from the Australian Technical Analysts Association and holds a Post Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, where she was a lecturer for a number of years.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian joined Leverage Shares in 2018 as part of the company’s primary expansion in Eastern Europe. He is responsible for web content and raising brand awareness.

Julian has been academically involved with economics, psychology, sociology, European politics & linguistics. He has experience in business development and marketing through business ventures of his own.

For Julian, Leverage Shares is an innovator in the field of finance & fintech, and he always looks forward with excitement to share the next big news with investors in the UK & Europe.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay joined Leverage Shares in late 2019. He is responsible for driving business growth by maintaining key relationships and developing sales activity across English-speaking markets.

He joined Leverage Shares from UniCredit, where he was a corporate relationship manager for multinationals. His previous experience is in corporate finance and fund administration at firms like IBM Bulgaria and DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay holds a BA in Finance & Accounting and a post-graduate certificate in Entrepreneurship from Babson College. He is also a CFA charterholder.

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Copper Ready to Explode

Q2 2024 Market Outlook: Rocky Road Ahead

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

How do Leverage Shares ETPs differ from other leveraged ETP issuers

How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies

Build your own ETP Basket
Leverage Shares: Europe’s top leveraged and inverse ETP provider.
Main ETP benefits
Common investor questions

Get the Newsletter

Never miss out on important announcements. Get premium content ahead of the crowd. Enjoy exclusive insights via the newsletter only.

Welcome to Leverage Shares

Terms and Conditions


If you are not classified as an institutional investor, you will be categorised as a private/retail investor. At this time, we cannot send communications directly to private/retail investors. You are welcome to view the contents of this website.

If you are an ‘Institutional investor’, you affirm either that you are a Per Se Professional Client, or that you wish to be treated as an Eligible Counterparty Client, both as defined under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, or an equivalent in a jurisdiction outside the European Economic Area.

Risk Warnings

The value of an investment in ETPs may go down as well as up and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Trading in ETPs may not be suitable for all types of investor as they carry a high degree of risk. You may lose all of your initial investment. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose. Changes in exchange rates may also cause your investment to go up or down in value. Tax laws may be subject to change. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. If in any doubt, please seek independent financial advice. Investors should refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in the securities offered by the Issuer.

This website is provided for your general information only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment.

Nothing on this website is advice on the merits of any product or investment, nothing constitutes investment, legal, tax or any other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment decision. Prospective investors should obtain independent investment advice and inform themselves as to applicable legal requirements, exchange control regulations and taxes in their jurisdiction.

This website complies with the regulatory requirements of the United Kingdom. There may be laws in your country of nationality or residence or in the country from which you access this website which restrict the extent to which the website may be made available to you.

United States Visitors

The information provided on this site is not directed to any United States person or any person in the United States, any state thereof, or any of its territories or possessions.

Persons accessing this website in the European Economic Area

Access to this site is restricted to Non-U.S. Persons outside the United States within the meaning of Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Each person accessing this site, by so doing, acknowledges that: (1) it is not a U.S. person (within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act) and is located outside the U.S. (within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act); and (2) any securities described herein (A) have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction and (B) may not be offered, sold, pledged or otherwise transferred except to persons outside the U.S. in accordance with Regulation S under the Securities Act pursuant to the terms of such securities. None of the funds on this website are registered under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the “Advisers Act”).

Exclusion of Liability

Certain documents made available on the website have been prepared and issued by persons other than Leverage Shares Management Company. This includes any Prospectus document. Leverage Shares Management Company is not responsible in any way for the content of any such document. Except in those cases, the information on the website has been given in good faith and every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy. Nevertheless, Leverage Shares Management Company shall not be responsible for loss occasioned as a result of reliance placed on any part of the website and it makes no guarantee as to the accuracy of any information or content on the website. The description of any ETP Security referred to in this website is a general one. The terms and conditions applicable to investors will be set out in the Prospectus, available on the website and should be read prior to making any investment.

Leverage Investment

Leverage Shares exchange-traded products (ETPs) provide leveraged exposure and are only suitable for experienced investors with knowledge of the risks and potential benefits of leveraged investment strategies.


Leverage Shares Management Company may collect data about your computer, including, where available, your IP address, operating system and browser type, for system administration and other similar purposes (click here for more information). These are statistical data about users’ browsing actions and patterns, and they do not identify any individual user of the website. This is achieved by the use of cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that is put on your computer if you agree to accept it. By clicking ‘I agree’ below, you are consenting to the use of cookies as described here. These cookies allow you to be distinguished from other users of the website, which helps Leverage Shares Company provide you with a better experience when you browse the website and also allows the website to be improved from time to time. Please note that you can adjust your browser settings to delete or block cookies, but you may not be able to access parts of our website without them.

This website is maintained by Leverage Shares Management Company, which is a limited liability company and is incorporated in Ireland with registered offices at 2 Grand Canal Square, Grand Canal Harbour, Dublin 2. 

By clicking you agree to the Terms and Conditions displayed.