11.09.2024 Notice of Investment Strategy Modification

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Fed Dovish Pivot lifts markets

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

– Dow hits record high, S&P just a few percentage points shy of its all-time high

– Fed plays catch up to the market

For a third consecutive meeting, the Fed left its main policy rate unchanged in the 5.25% to 5.5% range.

US Central Bank finally let the genie out of the bottle as it pivoted to a rate cut scenario, making a significant turn on its policy rate decision, essentially admitting that the rate hiking cycle is over.

Dec 1: “It would be premature to … speculate on when policy might ease.”
Dec 13:Rate cuts are something that “begins to come into view” and “clearly is a topic of discussion.”

What a difference 12 days (and one inflation report) can make.

That clear dovish shift from Chair Powell caused markets to rejoice. The DJIA broke 37k for the first time ever.

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The S&P 500, a broader and more representative index, also a more widely used gauge for equities, climbed to only a few percentage points away from its highest level on record.

On the back of lower Energy prices, cooling inflation dynamics prompted the Fed to signal that future inflation should decline faster than expected.

Core-CPI-ex Shelter inflation, a lagging indicator that wildly understated true housing inflation, came at 1.4% (below the 2% target by the Fed).

The Lower inflation forecasts will drive the lower Fed Funds Rate for 2024.

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Policymakers’ projections of the “dot plot” showed about three 25 basis points (bps) cuts in 2024, but traders are even more aggressive, betting on over twice that many cuts (or 165 bps in total).

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Source: The Daily Shot

The Fed capitulates to the markets?

The markets are front-running the Fed. Look at the incredible decline in the 10Y Bond Yields from 5% to 4% in the last weeks.

This caused financial conditions to ease dramatically, which, in turn, turbo-charged equities.

Fixed-income traders also rejoice, sending bond prices up and yields down, with the short end outperforming.

The 2Y Treasury Yield plunged over 30 basis points, the largest drop since the SVB fiasco in March.

Latest Producer Price Index (PPI)

The softer PPI reading confirms the lower trend we’ve witnessed over the past months as the two major indices, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, continued their downward path.

Moderating producer costs could also offer support for future CPI and PCE inflation reports; producers are not facing sharply spiking (input) costs that typically pass on to retailers and, ultimately, the consumer.

Key takeaway:

Inflation has eased faster than expected, opening the door for a more aggressive cutting cycle than initially expected.

However, the magnitude of rate cuts that the market wants are consistent with a possible recession ahead.

The bond market seems to agree with that notion as the yield curve continues flattening, a dynamic that precedes the incoming recession.

Investors can long the S&P 500 using our 3x US 500 , 5x US 500 .

Alternatively, investors can short the S&P 500 using our -3x US 500 .

Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Notice

If you are not classified as an institutional investor, you will be categorised as a private/retail investor. At this time, we cannot send communications directly to private/retail investors. You are welcome to view the contents of this website.

If you are an ‘Institutional investor’, you affirm either that you are a Per Se Professional Client, or that you wish to be treated as an Eligible Counterparty Client, both as defined under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, or an equivalent in a jurisdiction outside the European Economic Area.

Risk Warnings

The value of an investment in ETPs may go down as well as up and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Trading in ETPs may not be suitable for all types of investor as they carry a high degree of risk. You may lose all of your initial investment. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose. Changes in exchange rates may also cause your investment to go up or down in value. Tax laws may be subject to change. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. If in any doubt, please seek independent financial advice. Investors should refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in the securities offered by the Issuer.

This website is provided for your general information only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment.

Nothing on this website is advice on the merits of any product or investment, nothing constitutes investment, legal, tax or any other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment decision. Prospective investors should obtain independent investment advice and inform themselves as to applicable legal requirements, exchange control regulations and taxes in their jurisdiction.

This website complies with the regulatory requirements of the United Kingdom. There may be laws in your country of nationality or residence or in the country from which you access this website which restrict the extent to which the website may be made available to you.

United States Visitors

The information provided on this site is not directed to any United States person or any person in the United States, any state thereof, or any of its territories or possessions.

Persons accessing this website in the European Economic Area

Access to this site is restricted to Non-U.S. Persons outside the United States within the meaning of Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Each person accessing this site, by so doing, acknowledges that: (1) it is not a U.S. person (within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act) and is located outside the U.S. (within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act); and (2) any securities described herein (A) have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act or with any securities regulatory authority of any state or other jurisdiction and (B) may not be offered, sold, pledged or otherwise transferred except to persons outside the U.S. in accordance with Regulation S under the Securities Act pursuant to the terms of such securities. None of the funds on this website are registered under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the “Advisers Act”).

Exclusion of Liability

Certain documents made available on the website have been prepared and issued by persons other than Leverage Shares Management Company. This includes any Prospectus document. Leverage Shares Management Company is not responsible in any way for the content of any such document. Except in those cases, the information on the website has been given in good faith and every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy. Nevertheless, Leverage Shares Management Company shall not be responsible for loss occasioned as a result of reliance placed on any part of the website and it makes no guarantee as to the accuracy of any information or content on the website. The description of any ETP Security referred to in this website is a general one. The terms and conditions applicable to investors will be set out in the Prospectus, available on the website and should be read prior to making any investment.

Leverage Investment

Leverage Shares exchange-traded products (ETPs) provide leveraged exposure and are only suitable for experienced investors with knowledge of the risks and potential benefits of leveraged investment strategies.

Cookies

Leverage Shares Management Company may collect data about your computer, including, where available, your IP address, operating system and browser type, for system administration and other similar purposes (click here for more information). These are statistical data about users’ browsing actions and patterns, and they do not identify any individual user of the website. This is achieved by the use of cookies. A cookie is a small file of letters and numbers that is put on your computer if you agree to accept it. By clicking ‘I agree’ below, you are consenting to the use of cookies as described here. These cookies allow you to be distinguished from other users of the website, which helps Leverage Shares Company provide you with a better experience when you browse the website and also allows the website to be improved from time to time. Please note that you can adjust your browser settings to delete or block cookies, but you may not be able to access parts of our website without them.

This website is maintained by Leverage Shares Management Company, which is a limited liability company and is incorporated in Ireland with registered offices at 2 Grand Canal Square, Grand Canal Harbour, Dublin 2.

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