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ASML: Steady-as-she-goes

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ASML Holdings is the world’s largest producer of lithography systems, which are used to etch circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. It’s also the world’s only producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are used to manufacture the world’s smallest, densest, and most power-efficient chips.

The leading semiconductor equipment systems developer, released its Q1 fiscal year 2023 earnings results on the 19 th of April, demonstrating solid revenue growth and alignment with industry trends. The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker’s net sales surged 91% year over year to €6.75 billion ($7.4 billion), which exceeded analysts’ estimates by €360 million. Its net income jumped 181% to €1.96 billion ($2.15 billion), or €4.96 ($5.44) per share, which also easily exceeded the consensus forecast by €0.80 per share.

The revenue growth was primarily driven by the strong demand for its extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines, which accounted for 54% of total system sales. However, quarterly bookings declined, leading to unchanged management guidance for 2023.

Those growth rates were amplified by 19% revenue decline and 48% drop in net income a year earlier, which had largely been caused by the post-pandemic slowdown of the PC market, sluggish sales of smartphones, and other headwinds for chipmakers.

In the second quarter of 2023, ASML expects its revenue to grow 20% to 30% year-over-year as its gross margin rises from 49.1% to between 50% and 51%, and for the full year, it expects its revenue to rise by at least 25%.

Despite the uncertainty caused by bans on chip technology exports to China and other industry challenges, ASML remains well-positioned with a confident outlook for 2023. The company’s growth prospects are driven by the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and the increasing demand for advanced chips. ASML’s position as a top-quality semiconductor stock is strengthened by its resilient performance compared to its peers during the recent industry downturn.

ASML’s management expects the export bans to have minimal effects on the company’s financial outlook, and the long-term demand for manufacturing tools remains strong. While ASML faces cyclical challenges, its monopoly on critical chip-making technology and its role as a bellwether of the semiconductor market justify its premium valuation. ASML’s long-term prospects are optimistic, with revenue growth projections of €44-60 billion by 2030 and an expected annual gross margin expansion.

ASML Holdings Q1 2023 results demonstrated the company’s ability to adapt to industry trends and maintain strong financial performance. With its dominant position in the semiconductor market and positive long-term prospects, ASML remains an attractive investment option amid the evolving digital landscape and the increasing demand for advanced chips and AI technologies.

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Source: Tradingview

ASML share price is up 19% since the release of the quarterly results and 38% up for the year. From its October 2022 low where the prior bear market has bottomed the share price advanced 105%. Given the double-digit gains over the past eight months investors might be wondering if its worth chasing the stock after such a big rebound.

At this juncture in time the sequence of higher lows and higher highs is intact, and the Relative Strength Index is firmly in the bull market range, both suggesting that the intermediate trend is up. A small double top has formed over the past three weeks, pointing to a likely pull back in the short-term. If the pull back is contained above $660.00, it is merely unwinding the overbought momentum conditions, and could be considered as healthy for the sustainability of the longer-term up trend. Once the correction in price is completed an advance to $770.00 could unfold in the coming months.

Overall, ASML’s market leadership, consistent growth, technological advancements, and positive long-term prospects make it an enticing choice for investors looking to capitalize on the semiconductor industry’s potential and the demand for advanced chip technologies.

The increasing demand for advanced chips, fuelled by the digitalization of various industries and the rise of artificial intelligence, presents lucrative opportunities for ASML. Its focus on technological innovations and the development of future-proof solutions positions it favourably in the market.

Active traders looking for magnified exposure to ASML may consider our +3x Long ASML and -3x Short ASML ETPs. /span>

Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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