09.03.2026 Consolidation Notice

As markets entered the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, market observers and business media reported that Q4 is bound to be rocky owing to volatility from the upcoming U.S. elections and speculation over the Federal Reserve’s actions going forward. However, there is significant variance in the Q4 outlook between major financial institutions.

Russell Investments reports that markets went into Q4 with a fairly neutral sentiment, by largely being neither too oversold nor overbought.

Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

Given the market sentiment going into Q4, there is some likelihood that trends set over the past three quarters would either continue or be an indicator where market consensus is. Over the past 3 quarters, gold has emerged as the runaway champion among all instruments, with the S&P 500 trailing second.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 ranked fourth in terms of growth as investors huddled into Big Tech as a more “survivable” alternative to other sectors. Big Tech stocks are frequently pegged into both “Large Cap” and “Growth”: this intersection, as per Morningstar, is currently deemed as being overvalued relative to the rest of the market.

This outlook somewhat explains market reaction to ASML Holdings’ earnings release on the 15th of October, which triggered a substantial panic drop through a number of chipmaker and associated stocks. Overall, market expectations – going forward – pin higher hopes of strong earnings over the next 12 months on more fundamental and classical sectors such as materials, industrials, utilities and energy.

The surge in gold, market ambivalence regarding Big Tech, and strong outlook on sectors such as utilities and energy is a classic market sentiment indicator that recession risks haven’t been completely factored out of prominent market participants’ positioning, regardless of the outreach made by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the White House. The now-tight race between former President Donald Trump and current Vice-President Kamala Harris – in a marked change from that when former President Trump’s opponent was current President Joe Biden – certainly lends some concerns, given how different both candidates’ stated policy positions are.

In Conclusion

Whether there will be a recession or not, many major institutions – such as Deutsche Bank – highlight an interesting factor: the GDP growth rate in both the U.S. and China are expected to be lower in 2025 relative to the current year.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone, Japan and the rest of the world are expected to perform better in 2025. However, the Eurozone is expected to have the highest unemployment rate relative to its peers with China being a close second.

Overall, consensus expectations can be summarized thus: the broad market is expected to rise while Big Tech stocks (such as the Magnificent Seven) might experience some volatility. Gold and energy are expected to continue attracting higher valuations while Emerging Markets such as India, Southeast Asia and Latin America continue to develop strong moats that are derived both from increasing substitutions out of China as well as steadily improving economic health in these regions.

Professional investors will have numerous opportunities to capitalize on trends wrought by volatility as well as rotations. Click here for a list of leveraged products that said investors can consider.

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