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Das Sitzungsprotokoll des Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vom 25. bis 26. Juli ergab, dass die meisten Beamten der Federal Reserve „erhebliche“ Aufwärtsrisiken für die Inflation, die weitere Zinserhöhungen erforderlich machen könnten. Obwohl Positive Daten veranlassten die Zentralbank, ihre Rezessionsprognose aufzugeben. Die Teilnehmer waren weiterhin besorgt darüber, dass sich die finanziellen Bedingungen seitdem verschärfen Der Beginn des letzten Jahres könnte weitreichendere Folgen haben als erwartet.
Die politischen Entscheidungsträger deuteten die Möglichkeit künftiger Zinserhöhungen an Den Inflationsdruck eindämmen, was zu einem Ausverkauf der Aktien und einem Anstieg führt Renditen von Staatsanleihen. Allerdings waren sich die Zentralbankbeamten diesbezüglich uneinig die Notwendigkeit weiterer Zinserhöhungen.
Während das Hauptziel der Federal Reserve darin besteht, die Inflation zu senken Das Ziel von 2 % blieb unverändert, was die Bedenken der Anleger betrifft an der Zinsentwicklung anhielten. Während die Zentralbank räumte ein, dass die Wirtschaft weiterhin widerstandsfähig ist und der Arbeitsmarkt stillsteht Obwohl sie robust war, verzichtete sie darauf, den Sieg über die Inflation zu verkünden.
Die datenabhängige Haltung der Fed deutete auf den bevorstehenden September hin Das Treffen blieb von entscheidender Bedeutung, da die Entscheidung von umfassenden Daten abhing Analyse. Laut FedWatch Tool sieht der Markt lediglich eine Chance von 12 % einer Zinserhöhung im September und einer 35-prozentigen Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Zinserhöhung bis November.
Quelle: TradingView
Die Aktienmärkte standen diese Woche aufgrund der Daten unter Verkaufsdruck Dies unterstreicht die anhaltende Inflation und eine robuste Wirtschaft, was Ängste weckt Die Zinsen bleiben länger hoch, obwohl die Anleger dies größtenteils tun Sie gehen davon aus, dass die geldpolitische Straffung der Fed bald zu Ende sein wird.
Der Ausverkauf bei Aktien wurde teilweise durch den Anstieg der US-Staatsanleihen ausgelöst Renditen, was darauf hindeutet, dass es später in diesem Jahr zu Zinserhöhungen kommen könnte. Anliegen über Chinas Konjunkturabschwächung und die Ausweitung der Immobilienkrise wurden unterdrückt Die Risikobereitschaft verringerte sich und der Verkaufsdruck erhöhte sich.
Der Anstieg der Anleiherenditen kann die starke Rallye bremsen Jahresbeginn. Außerdem sind August und September saisonal Für Aktien waren es die schwächsten Monate des Jahres, was weitere Bedenken hinsichtlich des Sogs aufkommen ließ Der Rücken könnte tiefer reichen.
Insgesamt hat sich die Marktkorrektur diese Woche nach der vom Mittwoch beschleunigt Veröffentlichung des Sitzungsprotokolls der Federal Reserve, das darauf hinwies Beamte erwägen eine strengere Politik und machen damit die Hoffnungen der Zentralregierung zunichte Die Bank war damit fertig, die Zinsen zu erhöhen. Die Anleger erwarten den Vorsitzenden der Fed, Jerome Powell wird nächste Woche auf dem Symposium in Jackson Hole ähnliche Bemerkungen machen.
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