Now, the interesting aspect of this is that these are spot prices for the spring season’s harvest. In the U.S., winter wheat production, i.e. crops planted in the fall season, represents approximately 70% of total U.S. production The U.S. Department of Agriculture has already indicated in April that 30% of total wheat planted can be expected to be in good health – with estimates varying by a couple of percentage points in subsequent estimates. Overall, a large portion of global wheat supply comes from Ukraine and Russia.
Unsurprisingly, given the circumstances, India – the world’s second-largest grain producer – has banned all wheat exports until the foreseeable future. In the face of rising inflation, it can be expected that most major food producing/exporting nations will enact similar bans to contain inflationary pressures on their citizens.
In Conclusion
The facts presented drive home the points made in the past two Mondays: on a global basis (at least when the lens is centered on the U.S. and the Eurozone), the scale is steadily tilting towards the latter phase of the inflationary/recessionary cycle. While little can be done about the food supply situation beyond a „wait and see“ approach, there are alternatives available for tactically capitalizing on broad markets.
For example, Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) are available that deliver daily-rebalanced 3X leverage on the downside on both the S&P 500 and the DAX indexes. Similar products for high-conviction tech stocks, clean energy stocks, semiconductors, et cetera, i.e. stocks that will be acutely affected as the S&P 500 continues to deflate, are also available. Sophisticated investors with a disciplined and pragmatic approach have a lot to gain in these times.
